New cases ‘slowing down’ as one in 200 is infected

THE spread of coronavirus in England may be slowing, despite new infections hitting a high, a study has found.

Random mass testing on more than 80,000 volunteers, between September 18 and 26, found that one in 200 of them had Covid-19 – up from about one in 800 at the end of August.

But the R number – how many others each infected person typically spreads the virus to – had fallen from 1.7 to 1.1.

It suggests local restrictions may be working, Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori said.

But study director Prof Paul Elliott cautioned: ‘While our latest findings show some early evidence that the growth of new cases may have slowed, suggesting efforts to control the infection are working, the prevalence of infection is the highest that we have recorded to date. This reinforces the need for protective measures to limit the spread.’

Based on the team’s latest calculations, around 411,000 people in England currently have the virus, with cases highest among those aged 18 to 24.

Asian and black people were twice as likely to have the disease than white people, and half of those who tested positive did not have symptoms.

But some experts not involved in the study warned its findings should be treated with caution.

The Open University’s Prof Kevin McConway said: ‘This is an interim report, not based on the full data for round five of the study, because that is ongoing. So there’s quite a lot of statistical uncertainty about the R number that they estimate.’

And Prof Oliver Johnson, of the University of Bristol, told the BBC the conclusion that cases were slowing down was ‘wrong and dangerous’.

It came as latest NHS figures revealed 31,373 new patients tested positive for Covid-19 in England in the week to September 23 – up 61 per cent on the week before, and the highest number since test and trace began.

There were 6,914 lab-confirmed UK cases yesterday and 59 deaths, bringing the government’s total to 42,202.