Betting on politics
The exact date of Australia’s federal election is in the hands of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, but he needs to call a vote by next May at the latest. With £179,173 matched on Betfair, the ruling coalition (between Morrison’s Liberal Party and the smaller National Party) are narrow favourites to win at 1.87 (53.4%), with the Labor Party at 2.13 (46.9%). Betfair also puts the digital odds of an election this year at 6.2 (16.1%), with no election at 1.1 (90.9%).
While Australia’s attempts to eliminate Covid-19 have kept cases and deaths low, the slow rollout of the vaccine, as well as the emergence of the Delta variant, has caused voters to sour on the government. Polls suggest that the Labor Party, the main opposition, has been ahead in terms of the two-party-preferred vote since the start of the year, a lead that has widened in the last few weeks. Morrison’s approval rating, which was around 60% as late as January, is now in negative territory.
While Australia’s recent deal to buy vaccines from the UK should help accelerate the uptake of the jab, it will take a long time for Australia to reach the 70% that its scientists view as the level at which it can start returning to normal life. By that time, the damage to Morrison’s popularity could be too much to overcome. As a result, I’d suggest that you take the 2.13 on offer for Labor forming the next government. I’d also suggest taking the 1.1 on no election being held in 2021.