China vs America

A Warning

Oliver Letwin

Biteback (£20)

China’s rapid growth and vast population have led many to conclude that it will inevitably displace America as the world’s dominant nation. Oliver Letwin, the former Conservative

MP and cabinet minister agrees. In his new book, he argues that it is futile to ignore this shift or to try to preserve Western supremacy, and that we must instead encourage China to become a constructive member of the international community.

In the short run, this involves working to ensure that several disputes that China has with its immediate neighbours, most notably India, Japan and parts of central Asia, don’t become active conflicts. In the medium term, international institutions should be reformed to reflect the balance of power and today’s challenges, even if this means abandoning ambitions about democracy and human rights.

Letwin is certainly right that a trade war, let alone a physical war, would be bad for everyone. He is also correct that China’s power is likely to keep growing. However, he doesn’t give any suggestions for what the West should do if China doesn’t behave responsibly and keeps threatening its neighbours. What’s more, his argument that even if attempts at diplomacy fail, we’ll be no worse off than we are now, overlooks that it will be even harder to contain China’s territorial ambitions in the future. Still, it’s an interesting perspective on an increasingly important debate.