Get set for the roaring 2020s
It has been a rocky start to what some predicted would be the “Roaring Twenties”, says
Noah Smith. Covid-19 is still weighing on growth. Remote working was supposed to herald a new era of productivity, but many companies have grown sceptical and are “now demanding that workers return to their desks”. Nevertheless, “I’m still massively optimistic for the decade ahead”.
The energy revolution
The energy shocks of the 1970s ushered in a long period of stagnation. With countries unwilling to shift to nuclear (despite its evident benefits), innovation shifted away from the physical and into the digital realm. But now “staggering cost declines” for wind and especially solar power mean renewables are “ready for prime time”. Renewables are intermittent, but batteries will solve that problem by letting us store energy when the sun doesn’t shine: costs have fallen by 90% over the past decade, with more declines expected.
Cheap batteries open the way to everything from the ongoing electric-car revolution to e-bikes, and the ever wider use of drones and robots across society. There has also been “a massive explosion of funding and start-ups” in fusion power. “The old joke that fusion is always 30 years in the future is just about played out.”
Biotechnology
Biotech is off to a flying start after beginning the decade with mRNA vaccines against Covid-19. The technology can be applied to everything from malaria to some cancers. Advances in synthetic biology, gene editing, stem cells and computing power are opening up new ways to treat disability and ageing. Take neurotechnology, where brain implants allow some blind patients to see, or gene synthesis, which might help us to develop new antibiotics.
“We are finally starting to access the source code of humanity – to gain the ability to hack and rewrite ourselves.”
AI, nanotech, space
Meanwhile, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) mean robots will start to fill many of the repetitive service-industry tasks, helping to end the productivity slump. Nanotechnology could “transform chemical engineering and materials science”. The rise of the private space industry means even the final frontier is back in play after decades of humanity staying stuck in low-earth orbit. We could be “at the dawn of not just one new technological revolution, but several at once… the 2020s are going to be a very cool decade”.