Betting on politics

Joe Biden may have only been in office as US president for just over one year, but already the betting markets are heavily discounting his chances of being re-elected. With £794,668 matched on Betfair, Donald Trump (pictured) is currently the favourite to be the next president at 5 (20%) with Biden in second place at 6.4 (15.6%). Florida governor Ron DeSantis is at 8.2 (12.1%), while the vicepresident, Kamala Harris, is at 11.5 (8.7%). Mike Pence at 22 (4.5%) and Nikki Haley at 25 (4%) are the next in a long list of presidential contenders.

Biden isn’t even odds on to become the Democrat’s candidate. With £260,201 matched on Betfair, he is at 3.55 (28.2%) to be the nominee, though this is better than Harris at 5 (20%), Pete Buttigieg at 13.5 (7.5%) or Elizabeth Warren at 29 (3.4%). Punters on Smarkets think there is a decent chance Biden could leave office early, with the odds of him not serving out his full term of office at 2.7 (37%). (If he dies in office the bet will be voided.)

Perhaps the strangest bet is actually on Donald Trump being inaugurated president before 1 January 2025. With £36,603 matched, you can get 8.2 (12.2%) on him being inaugurated, and 1.1 (90.9%) on him not. The twist is that even if he wins the 2024 presidential election he will have to wait until 20 January until being sworn-in, so it is hard to understand the thinking behind those who are betting on an early re-entry. I’d take a bet on this not happening, even though you’ll have to tie your money up for nearly three years.