Finns and Swedes eye Nato
But joining would be a tricky and risky business. Matthew Partridge reports
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be aimed at making sure there is no question of the country joining Nato, says John Simpson on the BBC. But ironically, the result may be to expand the Western military alliance. Russia has threatened “military consequences” if Sweden and Finland were to join. But such threats may end up bolstering, not weakening, the alliance. Russian aggression has sent “shivers of fear” through many of its neighbours, from the Baltic states to Moldova, and Finland and Sweden are giving thought to whether they should join Nato, with their populations showing a “major change of mood” in favour.
Dramatic shifts in opinion
Indeed, polls confirm that there has been a “dramatic” shift in opinion against “long-standing policies of military non-alignment” in both countries, say Niclas Rolander and Kati Pohjanpalo on Bloomberg. Fifty-one per cent of Swedes and 48% of Finns now support Nato membership compared with just a few weeks ago when support was at 28% in Finland and 42% in Sweden. Several Swedish politicians now support membership and in Finland more than 50,000 people have signed a petition demanding an immediate referendum.
It has “long been conventional wisdom that Sweden would lead the way on something like this”, but actually it now looks like Finland is closer to joining, says Aaron Blake in The Washington Post. The Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin has promised a “thorough but expeditious debate on the topic”; her Swedish counterpart, on the other hand, has “thrown some cold water on the prospect”, warning that an immediate application could destabilise the whole of northern Europe. Still, even the Swedish PM hasn’t ruled out looking at the issue in the future and the opposition party is much more supportive of membership.
Easier said than done
There is a strong argument that having both countries formally inside the alliance would be good for all concerned, says Richard Milne in the Financial Times. The Baltic states are “particularly keen” to have Finland and Sweden in because of their strategic location – Finland has the longest border of any EU country with Russia, and Sweden’s island of Gotland could function as an aircraft carrier in the Baltic Sea. Having the support of Nato would also obviously “strengthen Finland and Sweden’s own security as well”.
Experts warn that that is all easier said than done though, says David Sanger in The New York Times. For one thing, it would need the agreement of existing members, and the United States is still “ambiguous” on the matter. Some also argue that it would make the countries vulnerable to a Russian attack in the period between their application and the time they came under the protection of the alliance. Finland already has a long-lasting partnership with Nato. But when US president Joe Biden met the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, neither would mention in public the possibility of Finland joining. No one is quite certain what Russia’s threat of “serious military-political repercussions” would mean, but following the brutal scenes in Ukraine, “they clearly do not want to find out”.