Are we heading for WWIII?
Russia is retreating from Kyiv and changing its war plans, and the West seems to be aiming for regime change, even as it realises that sanctions alone will not achieve that so long as Germany resists an oil embargo. The “crucial question” now, says Niall Ferguson, is whether Putin is being pushed into a corner that will lead him to lash out with more desperate measures.
The worse things go for Putin, the higher the chance he will use chemical or even small nuclear weapons. His goal since 2014 has, after all, been to stop Ukraine becoming a stable, Western-oriented democracy. “With every passing day of death, destruction and displacement, he may believe he is achieving that goal: rather a desolate charnel house than a free Ukraine.” Crucially, if Putin believes the US and its allies aim to overthrow him – as US president Joe Biden has implied in speeches, even if his officials row back on the comments – then he is much more likely to escalate conflict. “Those who dismiss the risk of World War III overlook this stark reality.”
Ukraine is in a much better position than Poland was in 1939. But if one thinks of World War II as an “agglomeration of multiple wars, the parallel looks more plausible”. If China were to launch an invasion of Taiwan next year, and war were to break out between Iran and its “increasingly aligned regional foes”, then we might have to start talking about WWIII.
A ceasefire won’t end the war
Whether it comes to that will depend on many things, including China’s willingness to help keep Putin afloat and the support of the Western public for the Ukrainian cause as food and fuel prices soar, stagflation eats into living standards, and the reality dawns that Ukraine is not winning this war – “as opposed to just not losing it”. Even if a ceasefire is agreed – most wars are short and there is a decent chance this one will be over soon – the peace will “take much longer to figure out”. That could lead to further bouts of fighting and the whole thing dragging out much longer than anyone seems to anticipate. History suggests, paradoxically, that the longer wars drag on, the less likely they are to end.
In short, history and political science point to a protracted conflict in Ukraine, even if a ceasefire is agreed soon. Putin’s fall is a low-probability scenario. Global stagflation and instability is a high-probability scenario. And nuclear warfare is “not guaranteed never to happen”. Explicitly calling Putin a war criminal and for his removal “meaningfully increases the risk” of these things. Let’s hope this is all wrong. But it pays to consider the worst-case scenario.