Three to sell
ITV
The Times
This broadcaster is aiming to launch a new streaming service, funded from inconsistent advertising revenue (set to be 6% lower than this time last year) and cash from its studios business. The project is “fraught with risk”. The launch, content and streaming data and technology will cost £65m this year, and £200m in 2023. Analysts expect pre-tax profits to shrink from £746m last year to £725m and £625m this year and the next. Avoid. 6,846p
Marshalls
Investors’ Chronicle
Paving company Marshalls has just bought the roof tile maker Marley at an enterprise value of £535m, but investors remain unconvinced by the deal. The price is roughly twice what Marley fetched in a private equity sale three years ago and intangible assets make up a large part of the purchase value, creating a greater risk of writedowns if trading doesn’t meet expectations. The repair, maintenance and improvements sector, which accounts for 53% of Marley’s sales, is heavily exposed to price rises, and after growing strongly last year, sales may shrink this year and next. Marshalls’ sales in its domestic end market are already down 8% this year. Sell. 578p
Telecom Plus
The Telegraph
This multi-utility supplier has a strong business model and is well-placed for growth – with many energy suppliers going out of business, households will be looking for new ones. A period of investment in its services may be drawing to a close, which should lead to higher profits. However, the stock trades on almost 30 times forecast earnings for the year to March 2023, which looks a full valuation. “Time to (reluctantly) take profits.” 1,562p