Betting on politics

With the Conservatives continuing to trail Labour in national opinion polls by between 17% and 29%, attention is turning to the date of Rishi Sunak’s departure from Downing Street. With £25,552 matched on Smarkets, punters have him at 4.3 (23.2%) to be replaced as PM this year, 1.9 (52.6%) to leave in 2024 and 2.9 (34.5%) to depart in 2025 or later.

Betfair doesn’t have a market on when he will leave as PM, but it does have a slightly different one on when he will be replaced as Conservative leader. With £9,388 matched, he is at 5 (20%) to be replaced this year, 2 (50%) in 2024 and 2.62 (38.2%) to be replaced in 2025 or later. I don’t think either of the bets offer much value at the moment as they are a reasonable reflection of the odds, though this could change.

Instead, you should think about betting on the date of Keir Starmer’s departure. Confusingly, Smarkets has two identical markets on the Labour leader’s departure, with £29,182 matched on one and £15,688 matched on the other. The odds are pretty much the same in either market, with 32 (3.1%) to leave by this year, 4 (25%) to leave in 2024 and 1.35 (74%) to remain leader by 2025. Unless some scandal erupts from out of nowhere, the only other way Starmer could be deposed is if Labour were to lose the next election.

What’s more, the bet explicitly defines Starmer’s exit as the election of a new, noninterim leader, rather than simply his resignation. Given that the last four Labour leadership elections in 2010, 2015, 2016 and 2020 took at least three months, and more typically four, this means that Starmer would have to announce his resignation by October 2024 for a successor to be installed before 2025. I therefore suggest that you bet on him to be the formal Labour leader until 2025 or later.