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Vladimir Putin has “lost the energy war” and the worst of the natural gas and electricity shortage in Europe is past, says Pierre Andurand, one of the best-known hedge-fund managers specialising in energy. “Very high natural gas and power prices in Europe were extremely bad for the world economy, but now they have come back to a more reasonable level,” he tells the Financial Times. “If gas prices stay here there will be much less worry about inflation and interestrates rises. There’s no more fear of an energy crisis.”

The decision to use energy as a political weapon and slash supplies to Europe after invading Ukraine was a “massive miscalculation” by Putin. “Russia has lost its biggest customer forever, and it will take at least a decade to bring enough pipelines to Asia. Once Russia can only sell gas to China, Beijing will be in a position to decide the price.”

Andurand has closed all his positions in natural gas, where prices have fallen back to around the level they were prior to the invasion. The benchmark TTF frontmonth natural-gas contract has tumbled from a peak of over €300/MWh in late summer, to around €50/ MWh now. However, he remains bullish on oil, arguing that it could hit $140/ barrel later in 2023.

China’s reopening will spur greater demand for crude and that’s not yet reflected in a market that is taking a short-term view, in part because of losses that traders suffered when prices fell from a brief peak of $139/ barrel to around $80/barrel now. “It might take a couple of months for the market to recognise the scale of the demand increase we’re seeing,” he says. Global demand could rise by four million barrels per day in 2023, compared with an average annual increase of one million barrels. “That would mean really large inventory draws and the market will get very tight,” even if exports from Russia – which are subject to Western sanctions – continue to flow uninterrupted to Asia.