Betting on politics

I’m writing this only a few hours after Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation, but already there are several active markets on who her successor will be, writes Matthew Partridge. With £4,268 matched on Smarkets, former Scottish National Party deputy leader Angus Robertson is favourite to succeed Sturgeon at 2.28 (43.8%), with cabinet secretary for finance and the economy Kate Forbes in second place at 5.7 (17.5%). Deputy first minister John Swinney is at 7 (14.3%), and cabinet secretary for health and social care Humza Yousaf is at 7.6 (13.2%).

Ladbrokes also has Robertson favourite at 1/1 (50%), with Forbes at 5/2 (28.6%), Swinney at 7/1 (12.5%), justice minister Keith Brown at 8/1 (11.1%) and Yousaf at 10/1 (9.1%). If you think Forbes has a chance, then William Hill has her at 3/1 (25%), and Brown at 9/1 (10%).

One good strategy when looking at a field with many candidates is to eliminate those who have big flaws that are likely to prevent them from winning. While this is not always foolproof, it might work well in this case. While many people have tipped Forbes, she is only 32 years old, which arguably makes her too young to be first minister. Swinney was forced to resign as SNP leader nearly two decades ago after a series of poor results, which makes it unlikely that he will be chosen. As the Scottish government has been heavily criticised for its poor handling of the devolved health services, I can’t see Yousaf winning either.

This leaves Robertson and Brown, with Robertson the clear favourite.

I would therefore advise taking the 2.28 that you can get on him winning on Smarkets.