Betting on politics

My confident prediction in last week’s column that former deputy leader Angus Robertson was very likely to be the next leader of the SNP hasn’t exactly aged well: Robertson promptly stated that he wouldn’t take part in the contest to become Nicola Sturgeon’s successor. Instead, with £19,070 matched on Smarkets, punters have health and social care secretary Humza Yousaf favourite on 1.49 (67%), while former minister for community safety Ash Regan is in second place on 5.6 (17.8%), and Kate Forbes is in third place on 7 (14.2%).

I make it a rule never to tip a contest where I’ve already made a recommendation, so I won’t be making any other predictions. Instead, let’s look at the Aston by-election in Australia, which is due to take place on 1 April after former minister Alan Tudge decided to retire from politics earlier this month. Currently, Bet365 is offering 4/6 (60%) on the Coalition winning and 11/10 (47.6%) on Labor, with the Greens on 40/1 (2.43%).

Aston used to be considered a relatively safe seats for the Liberals, who have held the seat for over three decades. The last Labor victory was back in 1987. Indeed, as late as 2019 Tudge got 60% of the two-party-preferred vote. In last year’s election, this plummeted to 53%. With the new Labor government currently enjoying an extended honeymoon in the polls, Labor evidently fancies its chances.

I still think you should bet on the Liberals. In his final years in parliament Tudge was beset by a range of scandals, including allegations of an affair and bullying. He was cleared, but these allegations led to his quitting as a minister. He was also criticised for his involvement in the Robodebt scheme. With a new candidate who doesn’t have his baggage, the Liberals should easily hang on to the seat.