Betting on politics

In a fortnight, those living in 230 unitary, metropolitan and district councils in England will be voting in local elections. Until recently, the betting exchanges and bookmakers have largely ignored these contests. This is starting to change. Smarkets is offering markets on control of Surrey Heath, West Berkshire and Wirral, and although none are liquid enough to recommend, Ladbrokes is also offering eight markets on Cheshire East, Sheffield, Swindon, Walsall, Bolton, Stockport, West Berkshire and East Cambridgeshire.

The situation is complicated by the fact that in some areas the entire council will be up for re-election, while in others only a third of the seats will be up for grabs, which makes it much harder for control of councils to change hands. And the results will be determined by local, as well as national, factors. Still, two clear betting opportunities stand out – in Sheffield and Swindon.

In the case of Sheffield, Labour is favourite on 4/5 (55.6%) to get a majority, with no overall control at 1/1 (50%) and a Lib Dem majority at 16/1 (5.8%). With 39 seats already, Labour needs to gain only four more seats to gain a majority on the 84-seat council. Given that Labour is polling much better nationally than it was when the last round of elections took place two years ago, this should be relatively straightforward, so I’d suggest betting on Labour to win.

Swindon is another council where Labour is favoured, this time at shorter odds of 1/2 (66.7%), with no overall control at 13/8 (38%) and a Conservative majority at 16/1 (5.9%). Labour will need to gain at least six councillors, but it should benefit from the fact that this is a straight fight between Labour and Conservatives, with only one independent on the council. So, I’d bet on Labour taking control.