Betting on politics

Just over a week ago US president Joe Biden announced he was running for re-election in 2024. Small but lingering doubts remain on the betting markets, however, about whether he even will even get to be the Democrat’s nominee. With £1.86m matched on Betfair, Biden is at 1.33 (75.2%) to win the nomination, with fringe candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr at 18.5 (5.4%), vicepresident Kamala Harris at 20 (5%) and California governor Gavin Newsom at 22 (4.5%).

As I’ve said before, I can’t see a realistic scenario where anyone other than Biden or Harris is the Democratic candidate, though don’t bet any money on either if you’ve previously followed my advice. One bet I would take is the 1.13 (88.4%) on Smarkets on Harris being on the Democratic ticket, as either the vicepresidential or presidential nominee. The odds are short, but the fact that Biden made her a prominent part of his announcement speech shows that he’s not going to replace her as his running mate.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump remains the clear favourite to become the Republican nominee for the third time in a row. With £2.4m matched on Betfair, the former president is at 1.59 (62.8%) to become the GOP’s candidate, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis at 4.5 (22.2%) and former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley at 29 (3.4%). Senator Tim Scott is at 42 (2.4%).

Trump may be in a strong position in the polls, but I think the markets are underestimating the chances of him suffering a major legal setback, especially in his ongoing civil case in New York. I remain convinced that DeSantis offers value, though as with Biden and Harris, don’t bet more if you’ve already put money on him. Either way, I’d take Betfair’s 1.18 (84.7%) on DeSantis announcing his candidacy before September 2024.