Rebel forces make gains against Burmese junta

Resistance forces seeking to oust Myanmar’s military regime have made

“one of their most significant gains since the junta seized power in a coup more than three years ago”, says Richard Paddock in The New York Times. Myawaddy, a town in the southeast of the country, is now held by rebels belonging to the Karen ethnic group. The town is a “key hub” for imports and exports on the border with Thailand, and accounted for $1bn in trade last year. That is only the latest in a series of reversals for a regime that has lost dozens of towns and military outposts in recent months in border regions near China and Bangladesh. The defeats are humiliating for the generals of the ruling junta, says Rebecca Ratcliffe in The Guardian. Its “brutal crackdowns” on any dissent have led many people to join armed opposition groups, which have joined forces with “older, more experienced” ethnic armies that have fought with the military for decades. This opposition has left the generals overstretched. They recently imposed mandatory conscription in response – a deeply unpopular policy that has prompted young people to flee military-controlled areas and has raised questions about how long the junta’s chief, Min Aung Hlaing (pictured), can survive.

It’s too early to predict the end of the civil war, but the latest rebel gains may encourage regime insiders to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing and negotiate a settlement, says Richard Lloyd Parry in The Times. There are signs too that Myanmar’s neighbours recognise that they need to put some pressure on the junta. As the Thai PM Srettha Thavisin said this month, Thailand stands to gain most if peace is made in Myanmar.