Wecan’ttrustmodels

World governments seem to be at sixes and sevens over their anti-coronavirus measures, from Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the severe lockdown of some countries, including the UK.

Politicians quite rightly take the advice of doctors and scientists on the course they should take, but I have questioned for some time the accuracy and dependability of modern scientists.

Climate change forecasts have been particularly suspect in recent years.

Scientists warn us that we are going to have such high sea levels because of climate change that whole islands will disappear under water. When this does not happen, there is no apology.

The scientists just go back to the drawing board – or the computer – and change the models.

To start with, the in-word was global warming, then the scientists found that the climate was not conforming to their forecasts and that there was some evidence that the forecast rapid warming was not taking place.

The ‘global warming’ tag was then replaced by the more neutral ‘climate. change’.

“Garbage in, garbage out” was a slogan I heard a few years ago. I wonder if the reason why scientists’ forecasts based on computer models are suspect is perhaps because the scientists now make up their minds beforehand what they want to see happen and the computer model is skewed accordingly in favour of the result they want.

Things certainly seem to have changed since I was a schoolboy.

We were taught that the scientific approach was to examine the evidence, then draw the conclusions from it which fit the facts, not a preconceived theory. Nowadays it seems to be the other way round: our scientists decide what their view is, then manipulate the facts to suit their theories.

Hence, the diversity of reactions to the present pandemic. Politicians cannot take chances and have to trust their scientific advisers, the latter’s findings are suspect and diverse and a whole range of measures are taken, varying according to the scientists’ own preconceived opinions, not scientific fact.

Perhaps this pandemic will be a wake-up call to scientists and their faulty use of computer models and all the doom and gloom forecasts about climate change will be moderated and toned down in accordance with proven facts. Our leaders and scientists used to be more cautious in their decisionmaking; now they are perfectly willing to ruin our economy and wreck our civilisation in their slavish adherence to a fashionable theory.

George K McMillan

Mount Tabor Avenue

Perth