EASINg RULES WILL bE FATAL Expert says we must stick with social distancing
AND TO ALL OUR FRONTLINE WORKERS
A Perth professor leading the fight to find a treatment for COVID-19 has warned any complacency over social distancing could undo all the good work achieved since March 23.
James Chalmers, a professor of respiratory research, said lifting restrictions could lead to an “exponential” spike in cases.
Prof Chalmers warned that just a small rise in person-toperson contact could lead to a second spike. He was speaking the day before First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed the lockdown in Scotland would last at least another three weeks.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to outline a plan for lifting some restrictions on Sunday, although the lockdown is likely to continue for now.
Prof Chalmers, who is currently leading a team at Dundee University conducting a UK-prioritised trial of a medicine to treat COVID-19, has welcomed the cautious approach being taken by the Scottish Government and said the fight against COVID-19 is at a delicate stage.
He said lifting the lockdown risked pushing the R0 - the number of additional cases an infected person will cause - above one.
Prof Chalmers told the PA:“If we lift the lockdown too quickly, we could very quickly see a second peak of infections.
“We estimate that exceeding about 10 per cent of previous personto-person contacts would risk putting the R0 value above one and therefore an exponential rise in cases.
“So we need to do this cautiously and that is exactly what the first minister said this week.
“I am worried that all of the talk of lifting the lockdown is creating some complacency, and we have all seen an increase in traffic on the roads over the past few days.
“We need to keep listening very carefully to the government advice and preserve the social distancing.
“Dropping this too quickly could undo all of the lifesaving work we have done over the last six weeks.”
Prof Chalmers was speaking on the same day it was confirmed deaths linked to COVID-19 in Perth and Kinross had risen above 40.
According to the National Records of Scotland, 43 deaths in the region have included the coronavirus on the death certificate.
Over a quarter -11 -have died in care homes.
However, the rate of infection is down, with an increase of five compared with 13 the week before.
The number of confirmed cases in Tayside had yesterday increased to 1465 with 48 in hospital.
We previously reported that Prof Chalmers was leading a team at the University of Dundee which is conducting trials of the drug brensocatib.
If successful, the treatment could potentially prevent patients from needing ventilated.