SNP’s EU claims do not holduptoscrutiny

It never ceases to amaze me how many of the independence brigade seem to want to suspend reality.

A good example was Alex Orr’s letter (PA, April 30), which seemed to airbrush away the problems Scotland’s fiscal deficit would give, if in the future an independent Scotland applied to join the EU.

Alex points out that despite the EU having a requirement for countries joining that they do not have a fiscal deficit of more than three per cent, they would allow a transition period for the country in question to get the deficit down to that figure.

Scotland’s deficit by the way is 8.6 per cent of GDP and is certain to increase substantially due to the economic damage inflicted by COVID, some say to over 20 per cent.

Now I agree with Alex that the EU would indeed allow countries joining to provide a fully costed plan to get this down to three per cent within a reasonable timeframe, probably something like three years.

So far so good, but wait a minute, how do you get such a huge and increasing deficit down to such levels?

The SNP, allegedly, have done no profiling on this, only intending to provide some clarity at the time a referendum is potentially called.

We don’t really need figures to get an idea of what this would mean, as there are only three realistic ways to address such a deficit if you cannot fill it as you do at present, courtesy of the Barnet Formula from the UK Government.

You “do things differently” in respect of increasing economic growth, as the SNP keep telling us. Is this realistic? Will “different” mean “better”?

I leave you to decide if there has been any sign the SNP government, with the economic powers they do have, made any progress whatsoever on that so far.

The SNP’s own advisers admit their relationship with” business” is not good. That hugely influential entrepreneur Tom Hunter said “the Scottish Government is far better at spending money than raising it”.

The second way would be to cut public spending. These cuts would have to be fairly swinging. The SNP go on about “years of Tory austerity,” but I fear the cuts required would make the Tory austerity years seem like a walk in the park.

The third way is raising tax.

Well, the SNP are good at that, Scotland already being the highest taxed part of the UK, how much further can you go there?

I am afraid the only assured way is a combination of two and three, a bright new future? I doubt it.

Another quote from Sir Tom Hunter: “In my opinion we need to wake up and realise now is not the time to be gambling on an independence referendum.

“If the block grant goes in the midst of recovery from the pandemic, how do we pay for any of this in the short to medium term?”

These are the words of a true Scot with a huge amount of business experience behind him, only pointing out the blindingly obvious.

Back to the EU, what makes Alex think they would be falling over themselves to admit another net financial beneficiary country to the block with a huge fiscal deficit?

They were desperate that the UK did not leave, primarily as the UK was second only to Germany in financial contribution, and one of only 10 net financial contributors to the block.

It just does not stack up that entry to the EU would be guaranteed in any short timescale.

I would remind Alex that there are currently five countries who have started accession negotiations as far back as 2004, including Turkey. Would Scotland jump to the head of the queue? Only the deluded would bank on that.

Alex seems to have been confused when he says: “Scotland is not an independent state so it is hard to determine what the deficit of it would be.”

Just read the foregoing Alex, the deficit is certain to be north of 10 per cent at best on “independence day one”. It could be a lot worse.

This is the reality.

I could go on, but of course to those who have an ideological belief that independence is worth any amount of pain the economic argument will cut no ice.

It is up to the rest of us to bring a dose of reality to this whole situation and consider whether we want to be significantly poorer and with a hard border at Carlisle.

George Godsman