Waiting for the tide
Balancing luck and skill
AI read a post on a forum recently in which an ocean racing enthusiast was complaining that with foiling hulls sailing at over 20 knots through the Southern Ocean over Christmas, this edition of the Vendée Globe solo round the world race is more likely to be decided by luck than by skill or effort.
And it occurred to me that those who believe they make their own luck through skill and preparation are optimists above all.
Take Sir Robin Knox-Johnston, or Bernard Moitessier, for example: the first two to sail non-stop solo around the world (more on page 44). Luck or skill? Their preparations convinced them their luck would hold... So off they went. I envy their positive outlook on life!
This issue we discuss lightning (page 50) in an article by a man whose boats have been struck three times! Just bad luck?
PBO reader Terry Abel’s swing keel (page 66) would have been lost but for the stopper knot in the uphaul line. Good seamanship to tie the knot, but lucky the keel didn’t get jammed on the seabed while being dragged home.
And what about our heroic navigator (page 76) in the Alderney Race in thick fog with no GPS. Kudos for finding the 60-fathom trench for contour navigation, but who gets the credit for not colliding with the large vessel following the same contour?
Maybe the sea respects us for trying our best: sailing well-found boats, using the best nav skills and strongest lines? Or maybe it’s just better to be lucky than smart.