The summit of ambition

There is a hint of desperation in Fiona Harvey’s attempt— before COP26 had started—to put any absence of a global deal on climate change on Boris Johnson’s shoulders. As the summit gets under way some realism is required.

Britain happens to be hosting the event but on climate issues we are a minor player, accounting for less than 1.5 per cent of global emissions. We have limited power to tell others what to do. We may extract promises but that does not mean they will be met.

No British prime minister, however detailed their knowledge of and commitment to the green agenda, could align the divergent interests and policies of China, India, Australia, Brazil and the European Union. Whatever pledges emerge will not change that structural fact.

Joe Biden is having enough trouble settling an agreed policy in one country. For some others, climate is top of the agenda. For others it is, rightly or wrongly, a second- or third-order concern, behind such topics as development, terms of trade and national security.

The outcome of COP26 will be imperfect—a full-scale global deal is surely beyond reach and probably always was. The whole UN climate framework is overblown and carries a whiff of the League of Nations—a worthy endeavour, in effect, to create a world government.

There will be some progress, and some coalitions will form behind constructive policies. Some countries and some companies will be encouraged to invest in the science and technology that will produce solutions. Johnson’s contribution will be to have kept the issue on the global agenda. It is easy to sneer, but even that limited outcome will be better than nothing.

Nick Butler, founding chair of the Policy Institute at King’s College London