A coalition comes unstuck

Max Wind-Cowie identifies a key issue for the Conservative Party as its leader loses his shine: none of the potential replacements seem likely to appeal across the coalition of voters he brought together in 2019 (“Tories face the electoral wilderness,” March). While Johnson’s overall popularity was unexceptional at the time of the election, he was able to unite those who had been flirting with the Brexit Party with Labour voters who “lent” their votes to “get Brexit done.” Though the first group was larger, it was the second that was critical to winning previously unwinnable seats in the Midlands and north.

Holding this coalition of voters together was never going to be easy. Conservative MPs and the more traditional Conservative voters differ substantially from these new Tory voters, both socially (the new Conservatives are more likely to be on lower incomes and to describe themselves as working class) and in terms of economic values. In work conducted by my think tank UK in a Changing Europe, Tory MPs were more economically right wing than the party’s councillors or members and far more so than Tory voters. This is a tension that will come to the fore as the leadership changes and economic issues, such as the cost-of-living crunch, take centre stage.

The electorate remains volatile, and less loyal to political parties than in the past. This provided an opportunity for the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 to win over “new” voters, but it is also a challenge. As there are no newly forged ties binding these voters to the party, delivery matters more than ever.

Paula Surridge, political scientist