Green shoots?

With the polls resolutely showing a large Labour lead, it is not surprising that political commentary—such as Sam Freedman’s latest column (“The Greens can break through—if they grow up”, May)—is increasingly turning to the shape of party competition in a post-2024 world, and the question of how voters might respond to a new government.

With a widespread expectation that a defeated Conservative party will move further towards the right-wing Reform UK, challenges to Labour from the left will be worth watching. When there has been a Labour government in recent times, this challenge has come, in England, from the Lib Dems. But it is likely that many Lib Dem MPs will be reliant on the votes of disaffected Tory voters and less keen to fight Labour on its left flank.

The Greens, meanwhile, have been making gains at the local level in surprising places, forging an unlikely alliance across the rural-urban divide. They might also boast of their involvement in “grown-up” politics, engaging in electoral pacts in 2019, coalition government alongside the SNP in Scotland and, recently, stepping aside to reduce the chances of a split in the progressive vote in the contest for the Tees Valley mayoralty. There is, however, a danger that appearing too willing to work with others becomes a signal to voters of electoral weakness.

In a future parliament, the Greens may find their options more limited than supposed. Uniting disparate groups by campaigning differently in different areas is much harder in national elections. It is possible the most salient issues in the 2024 parliament will be those where the Greens have strength. But they will be facing a government more sympathetic to these concerns, and—in the absence of a desperately unpopular government to campaign against—their key struggle may be to find relevance at all.

Paula Surridge, University of Bristol