Andy New­ton sup­plies the trail to lead you to­wards the win­ner at Chel­tenham on Novem­ber 18

Racing Ahead - - CONTENTS -

Sup­ply­ing the vi­tal trends for the BetVic­tor Gold Cup

This month we are back with the jump­ing ac­tion as we wave good­bye to an­other turf Flat sea­son. It’s been an­other crack­ing sea­son of Flat ac­tion on the green stuff, but the clear high­light has got to be John Gos­den’s En­able who mopped-up Group One af­ter Group One through the year to take her tally at the high­est level to five.All these top lev­els races were achieved in the space of just four months, which, of course, peaked with an im­pres­sive vic­tory in the Prix de l’Arc de Tri­om­phe – a win that took her to­tal prize haul to a stag­ger­ing £3.8mil­lion. That’s what I call ‘Girl Power’!

Any­way, enough of all that – and let’s now turn our at­ten­tion to the hedge-hop­pers for the next six months and we get go­ing in Novem­ber with the Chel­tenham Open Meet­ing as a clear early sea­son high­light for many jump­ing fans.

As al­ways, we’ve two days of top Na­tional Hunt ac­tion at Prest­bury Park to look for­ward to with the BetVic­tor Gold Cup the meet­ings main event – this year run on Satur­day Novem­ber 18.

In re­cent years it’s been a fix­ture that the lead­ing sta­bles like the Pipes, Nigel Twis­ton-Davies, Paul Ni­cholls and Jonjo O’Neill have ex­celled at, and since 1996 those four pow­er­ful NH yards have be­tween them won the BetVic­tor Gold Cup a stag­ger­ing 15 times!

This key ‘sta­bles stat’ was once again backed-up 12 months ago as the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Taquin Du Seuil gave the Jack­daws Castle team their third win in the race and their sec­ond in the last four run­nings.

So – what are the other key trends to look for?

Let’s start with hav­ing pre­vi­ous ex­pe­ri­ence and winning form at Chel­tenham. All of the last 15 win­ners had a pre­vi­ous taste of fences at Prest­bury Park, while 11 of those 15 (73%) had winning form over the big­ger ob­sta­cles at the course be­fore.

Next up is to look for horses that have won be­fore over at least 2m4f (fences) and are also from UK-based yards – 13 of the last 14 win­ners fit the bill on both those counts – we’ve only seen one Ir­ish-trained win­ner of the race in the last 26 years (Tran­quil Sea, 2009).

The age of re­cent win­ners has also been a de­cent trend to note as de­spite last year’s win­ner be­ing a nine year-old it’s ac­tu­ally been a crack­ing con­test for six or seven year-olds with 11 of the last 15 win­ners fit­ting that age bracket.But with 53% of the last 15 win­ners aged seven then this is cer­tainly the age that has done the best of late.

Stick­ing with the age for just a bit longer, as it’s also worth look­ing at the other end of the age spec­trum as you might want to rule out the older run­ners in the field - the last dou­ble-fig­ure aged win­ner was in 1975!

Head­ing into the race with good re­cent form is an­other thing to look for as 9 of the last 15 win­ners took this off the back of a top four fin­ish last time out, while if your fancy is hav­ing it’s first run of the new Na­tional Hunt sea­son, then don’t worry too much about this ei­ther as eight of the last 15 came there ready to rum­ble af­ter a lay­off.

We’ve al­ready men­tioned the age, but this is fur­ther backed-up with the slightly lesser ex­posed run­ners do­ing best in re­cent years. 66% of the last 15 win­ners had only won two or three times pre­vi­ously over fences sug­gest­ing that the im­prov­ing younger chasers of­ten do well.

Be­ing a hand­i­cap then the weight-car­ried is cer­tainly worth tak­ing into ac­count too. Nine of the last 15 win­ners car­ried 10-13 or less, but – be warned – there are signs this weight trend is start­ing to turn the other way as four of the last five win­ners have won with 10-13 or more. Backed up again last year with Taquin Du Seuil shoul­der­ing 11-11 to vic­tory, which was only the third time since 1995 that we’ve seen the win­ner lump 11-8 or more to vic­tory!

Fi­nally, the bet­ting can of­ten be a good guide too as de­spite the com­pet­i­tive­ness of the race we’ve seen three of the last 15 mar­ket lead­ers go in, which at a 20% strike-rate isn’t bad for a race of this na­ture. How­ever, the favourites have also placed in 7 of the last 15 (47%), while it’s worth not­ing that a mas­sive 12 of the last 15 win­ners (80%) re­turned 12/1 or shorter in the bet­ting – sug­gest­ing it’s a race the pun­ters gen­er­ally get right.

So, this should be easy! With all those fac­tors taken on board you could do a lot worse than fo­cus on any­thing the Pipe,

Ni­cholls, O’Neill and Twis­ton-Davies yards have en­tered, plus are also aged six or seven and have past track ex­pe­ri­ence and are 12/1 or less in the bet­ting – Sim­ple!!


Re­cent BetVic­tor Gold Cup Win­ners

2016 - Taquin Du Seuill (8/1) 2015 – An­na­cotty (12/1) 2014 – Caid Du Ber­lais (10/1) 2013 – Johns Spirit (7/1) 2012 – Al Ferof (8/1) 2011 – Great En­deav­our (8/1) 2010 – Lit­tle Josh (20/1) 2009 – Tran­quil Sea (11/2 fav) 2008 – Im­pe­rial Com­man­der (13/2) 2007 – L’An­tar­tique (13/2) 2006 – Ex­otic Dancer (16/1) 2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav) 2004 – Ce­les­tial Gold (12/1) 2003 – Fond­mort (3/1 fav) 2002 – Cy­for Malta (16/1)

BetVic­tor Gold Cup Bet­ting Trends

15/15 – Had run at Chel­tenham be­fore 14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences be­fore 14/15 –Won by a UK-based trainer 12/15 – Re­turned 12/1 or shorter in the bet­ting 12/15 – Car­ried 11-7 or less in weight 12/15 – Car­ried 11-7 or less in weight 11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old 11/15 – Had won at Chel­tenham be­fore 10/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences be­fore 10/15 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Ni­cholls (2) or Twis­ton-Davies (2) 9/15 – Car­ried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 5 car­ried 10-13 or more) 9/15 – Fin­ished in the top 4 last time out 8/15 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the bet­ting 8/15 – Aged 7 years-old 8/15 – Won this on their sea­sonal reap­pear­ance 7/15 – Placed favourites 5/15 – Won their last race 4/15 – Trained by the Pipe sta­ble 4/15 – Ran at Chel­tenham last time out 3/15 – Winning favourites 3/15 – Ran at Carlisle last time out 2/15 – Rid­den by Sam Twis­ton-Davies 1/15 – Ir­ish-trained win­ners The last win­ner aged in dou­ble-fig­ures was in 1975 Paul Ni­cholls has sad­dled 8 placed horses (two win­ners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Ber­lais) from his last 32 run­ners The av­er­age winning SP in the last 15 years is 17/2

Taquin Du Seuil (left) wins the 2016 BetVic­tor Gold Cup at 8/1

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