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Planning pause on HS2 Phase 2b (East) comes amid dampened passenger demand.
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WORK has been halted on planning for the eastern extension of HS2 (Phase 2b) and it appears that a new appraisal of the business case will be undertaken. The publication of the Integrated Rail Plan (IRP) for investment in the Midlands and north of England, including the Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands Rail Hub, has also been postponed.
As Rail Express went to press, union TSSA was awaiting a response from Government following a demand for formal confirmation that HS2's eastern leg has been “scrapped, paused, or mothballed”. The South Yorkshire elected mayor, Dan Jarvis, commented that there had already been a ninemonth delay in revealing the IRP and that it is vital for the region to know what investment is to take place, particularly given the recent decision to withdraw through services to Manchester Airport as part of proposed timetable reductions.
He concluded that the continuing delay can only be interpreted as meaning that what is being planned is going to fall short of the promises made to improve rail services between many towns and cities in the region.
The original £10 billion Network Rail budget for capacity enhancement projects during the five-year period between 2019 and 2024 is also under pressure, having seen two separate reductions of £1b and £500 million. This is interpreted as a contribution towards the continuing bill for revenue support to maintain rail services.
DEMAND 50% DOWN
At the end of July, the Rail Delivery Group, representing the franchised train operators, revealed that demand was 50% below the passenger numbers recorded before the pandemic. The decision has already been taken that the May 2022 timetable will reduce services by 20% and that where overcrowding occurs, train operators will be expected to strengthen services, although keeping spare rolling stock to do this must be questionable.
If the reduced timetable continues for any length of time due to changes to travel patterns caused by high levels of working remotely, it is likely that a number of capacity enhancement projects will be curtailed, with a switch of emphasis to route improvements for freight operations, where volume has returned to pre-Covid levels.
There is also the question of electrification where authorised projects were cutback in the face of escalating costs for the Great Western Main Line, which cost close to £3m per single track kilometre (stk).
Since then, rail contractors have been working to improve the catenary design and clearance requirements so that a more competitive figure of £1m per stk can be delivered.