Numbers show big divergence in operator performance

User statistics for July, August and September 2021 were published by the Office for Rail and Road on December 16. Some 248 million journeys were recorded over that quarter, which was a reduction of 44.6% compared to the 448 million trips recorded during the same period two years ago, before the Covid pandemic decimated rail demand.

Statistics for different train operators showed a wide variation, with LNER as the best performing, recording the return of 89.6% of passengers. The open access East Coast Main Line operators also saw a recovery to 74.1% for Hull Trains and 69.9% for Grand Central.

InterCity operators on other routes did less well, with Avanti West Coast recovering 59.5% of its previous comparable volume and Great Western Railway securing 53.5%. The results allow some conclusions to be drawn about the future and the potential effect of home working on different services, with GWR in particular having a high element of commuters, whereas the East Coast operators have a greater element of optional travel.

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES APPARENT

There is also a divergence between the recovery of regional operators in England compared to London and the South East. Merseyrail has recovered 69.9% of its previous passenger level with Northern at 61.3%, whereas South Western Railway attracted 52% of previous demand levels, with Govia Thameslink at 50.3%.

The arrival of the omicron virus variant brought a renewal of advice to work from home and Network Rail statistics showed that within a week station footfall on December 13 had fallen by an average of 24%. This time there was as big impact outside London, with a reduction of 35% recorded at Leeds and 25% at Bristol, with an overall reduction at London stations of 24%.

The revenue impact mirrored the fall in demand with fare box income being reduced to 43% of pre-pandemic levels. This emphasises the loss in season ticket users, as the ORR reported that in the period July-September 2021 only 15.5% of journeys were made using tickets of this type.

Separately, the National

Audit Office has revealed that the Government spent £26.5 billion on the rail network in the 2020/21 financial year, of which £8.5 billion was to support the continuation of timetabled services despite low levels of demand. Network Rail received £13.4 billion, with HS2 construction costing £3.6 billion.