Rail Express

Passenger demand recovery well underway

Official figures show that with the easing of Covid travel restrictio­ns, travellers have been quick to return to the railway.

- By ‘Industry Witness’

FIGURES published by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) show that for the three months between October and December 2021, passenger numbers were at a level of 62% when compared to the similar period two years before the pandemic occurred.

The total number of rail users was 285 million, compared to the 461 million carried two years before. As well as reduced numbers, there have been significan­t changes in the pattern of travels with a sharp decline in the use of season tickets, which accounted for only 48 million journeys – a third of the previous volume.

Although there have been reductions in the timetable the train kilometres operated in the threemonth period represente­d 88% of the pre-pandemic figure, indicating the amount of excess capacity

compared to actual passenger use. The dilemma is that if permanent service cutbacks are made it is not hard to see that there could be a significan­t capacity shortfall when confidence about using rail services is restored.

In fact, the statistics about passenger numbers were skewed, because in November 2021 volume had recovered to 72% of that previously recorded but fell back to 33% in mid-December after the Government introduced new guidance to work from home. As a footnote, the ORR also considered it likely that the lack of on board ticket inspection resulted in higher levels of ticketless travel which cannot be captured in the recording of passenger numbers.

VARIANCE IN DEMAND

In the period reviewed there was a significan­t variance in demand between operators. In London and the South East, operators such as Chiltern Railways saw the return of 55% of passengers, which was the same as Thameslink, with Southeaste­rn recording 58% and South Western Railway 59%. The demand for Heathrow Express services was reduced to 45% reflecting restricted airline operations.

These figures are significan­tly lower than those for Merseyrail, where 70% of passengers returned, and Northern, which saw a 67% recovery. The reason for the disparity is judged to be because the nature of employment in London and the South East enables a greater number of staff to work from home, which is not the case in other parts of the country.

The longer distance operators had better results, headed by LNER, which saw 84% of users return, because the market served is primarily discretion­ary with less dependence on travel to work journeys. Similarly, Hull Trains recorded an 82% level of passenger demand and East Midlands Railway 77% compared to the figures recorded for the comparable time in 2019.

REDUCED FARE BOX

An effect of the reduced revenue component made up of season ticket holders is that the average fare paid for a rail journey declined to £5.98 per journey, compared to £6.15 two years ago. This is a worrying statistic given fare increases of 2.8% in January 2020 and 2.6% in March 2021, suggesting that to keep pace with inflation a current average fare of around £6.50 might be expected. It will be an essential part of future recovery that journey quality sustains higher prices.

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