A new challenge to HS2

Network Rail might be under tight spending constraints, but that doesn’t mean that there’s no money flowing into making our rail network bigger and better.

The Government has committed to building High Speed 2, increasing capacity and cutting journey times initially between Birmingham and London and then Birmingham and Manchester/Leeds.

Yet Labour peer and civil engineer Tony Berkeley is increasingly concerned that HS2’s costs are heading upwards. He’s worked with a quantity surveyor, Michael Byng, and argues that the first phase is likely to cost £48 billion rather than the £24bn the Government reckons.

His figure could be credible, given that Byng is the man who developed for Network Rail a ‘rail method of measurement’ system to improve cost estimates. However, NR has yet to adopt his work.

Wherever the true figure lies for Phase 1, it’s inescapable that Byng’s estimate is double that of the Government. Berkeley concludes that HS2 doesn’t have a credible estimate of costs, and notes that HS2 did not challenge his revised estimates for Euston’s rebuild.

This doesn’t mean that his estimate was accurate, but shows that HS2 is not keen to reveal its detailed cost assumptions. This might be because it has still to let contracts to build the line, and is keen to stick to its original estimates in order to encourage potential builders to think efficiently.

Whatever the reasons, HS2 stands to lose much goodwill if Berkeley and Byng’s higher estimates mature into reality.

I fear that if Phase 1 overspends then Phase 2 - which will deliver faster journeys for northern England - will be called into question.