Commuter overcrowding: DfT understates future demand
In RAIL 832, reference was made to the Department for Transport’s newly published High Level Output Specification (HLOS), and its demand forecasts for passengers using trains into London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester during the morning peak both in 2018-19 and 2023-24.
Over the past five years (Office of Rail and Road data), we have seen the following percentage increases in passenger journeys:
London and South East - 20.4%. Regional - 14.0%. Long-distance - 14.5%. Yet the HLOS report projects an average increase in passenger demand across the 12 listed London stations of 5.2% for the five-year period 2018-19 to 2023-24 (using the morning three-hour peak). The corresponding average increase for the stations listed outside London is 2.8%.
This would suggest the HLOS demand forecasts are understated by a factor of least four, which is very significant.
Let us look at one station, Euston, in more detail, concentrating on the AM three-hour peak DfT forecasts and comparing them with the actual in 2012 (supplied by the DfT):
2012 - 25,091 passenger arrivals
2018-19 - 31,400 (HLOS forecast)
2023-24 - 32,700 (HLOS forecast)
So, over the initial six-year period there would be a 25.1% growth. Over the next five-year period there would be a 4.1% growth.
Over the past five years we have seen the following growth in total passenger journeys (ORR data): London Midland - 23.7%. London Overground - 84.0%. Virgin West Coast - 24.8%. These three train operating companies serve Euston station. So, the 2018-19 DfT figure looks realistic, while the 2023-24 figure looks significantly understated.
There are other surprising forecasts. Liverpool Street (Crossrail) is forecast to have 0% growth between 2018-19 and 2023-24, even though Crossrail is due to become fully operational in December 2019.
St Pancras (through services) and London Bridge (Sussex routes) are both expected to have 2.7% growth over this five-year period, despite the improved Thameslink service coming on stream.
By contrast, King’s Cross is expected to have 27.8% growth and Liverpool Street 21.7% growth over this five year period. Why?
With such an apparent inability to coherently forecast passenger demand, is it any wonder that 149,000 (23%) rail passengers have to stand on trains into London during the morning three-hour peak? There are similar issues on commuter trains into Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and other large cities, although on a smaller scale.
Crossrail and the improved Thameslink programme will by no means address all of the overcrowding issues on trains into the capital. The overcrowding on commuter trains will never be properly addressed if the DfT significantly understates future demand.