A business plan for North Wales development
A lot has been written about the prospects for transforming services on the North Wales coast route, including the report covering the meeting convened at June’s National Rail Conference that focused on the Growth Track 360 campaign ( RAIL 832).
The argument about economic transformation that can be brought about by better rail services is a familiar one, which has been fleshed out in the Northern Powerhouse proposal for better connectivity to serve centres for employment, education and increasingly centralised public services.
For North Wales, the realisation that the Mersey/Dee region is the economic centre is correct, and the key to better rail services is to move the focus to providing improved connectivity with Chester, Manchester and Liverpool -including the respective airports. There remains a tourist dimension, but this should not be seen as the principal economic driver.
Passenger numbers at stations in North Wales are woeful. They have not grown in line with average demand for rail trips over the last decade, and there is minimal commuting to employment centres. An investment of the suggested £1 billion, that includes electrification, is fanciful in the extreme.
Moreover, electrification cannot happen based on existing fare-box revenue, which was demonstrated in the Network Rail Route Utilisation Strategy.
What is needed is to take a leaf out of the TransPennine Express (TPE) experience, where an express network was carved out of poorly performing local services on the routes with a result that exceeded all expectations. Hull Trains is a not-dissimilar example, albeit on a single route where an express service with amenities that passengers value has created a tenfold increase in passenger numbers since 2000.
At First Class Partnerships, we find it quite useful in business plans to set incremental goals - namely what can be achieved in five years, ten years, and the longer term.
For example, within five years a North Wales Express network can be created. There are a number of options to do this, but the easiest way is to expand the TPE network to include North Wales. This would create the foundations for further incremental investment along the route.
As contributors to the Growth Track 360 campaign have observed, to allow bureaucratic boundaries to get in the way of improved services is a disservice to the people and stakeholders who represent them.