Analysis
RICHARD CLINNICK compares the state of today’s UK rolling stock with the fleet at the start of the privatisation era, and examines how some claims in the national media are not telling the whole story
The age of UK rolling stock.
NATIONAL newspapers have often run stories suggesting that the current UK fleet is the “oldest since records began”. And this was repeated on January 1, using statistics from the Office of Rail and Road (although the statistics were actually released on October 24 2017).
In The Independent, Campaign for Better Transport Chief Executive Stephen Joseph was quoted as saying that the age of trains shows “just how far the railways have to go to modernise”, although he did highlight how good-quality refurbishments can offer a quality product.
Predictably, the launch of the Great Western Railway Class 800/0s on October 16 last year, which was marred by water falling onto passengers and a delay caused by a pantograph fault ( RAIL 838), was highlighted.
But is this selective reporting? It seems to have been overlooked that new trains are being delivered, and this is set to increase dramatically over the next few years.
Furthermore, new fleets currently being introduced (Class 707s with South Western Railway) are themselves due to be replaced by even newer trains ( RAIL 824). This means that somewhere, trains ordered in 2014, delivered in 201718 and withdrawn in 2019-20 will be cascaded to replace older trains elsewhere.
When the Office of Rail and Road stats began (actually as recently as the second quarter of 200001), the average age of the fleet was 20.67 years. The fleet in the Regional sector was the youngest (17.61), while the age of the London and South East sector fleet was 20.51 and that of the Long Distance sector 25.74. The LSE fleet will have been hampered by the reliance on Mk 1 slam-doors, while the long-distance fleets included hauled coaches used by Anglia Railways, Virgin CrossCountry and Virgin West Coast, as well as smaller fleets used by Great Western Railway. The regional fleet was the youngest at the time, made up (largely) of Sprinter fleets introduced in the late 1980s.
Fast forward to today, and the average age nationally is not that different. It is currently 21.08 years, with Long Distance still the oldest (26.13), followed by Regional (24.29) and LSE (18.43). This highlights the introduction of modern fleets in London to replace trains dating from the 1950s and1960s, and the ageing of fleets used in the regions.
The average age of the LongDistance fleet will continue to come down rapidly, as new Intercity Express Programme trains replace High Speed Trains dating from 1976-82 and Class 91/ Mk 4 sets dating from 1988-91. Likewise, in East Anglia, Class 90s built in 1987-88 hauling Mk 3s built in 1973-86 will be replaced by new fleets from next year.
The claim that the figures at the end of 2017 were “the oldest since records began” is also misleading - actually that was in Q3 2016-17 (21.27 years).
This had climbed steadily from the low in Q2 2005-06, when the average age was 12.98. At that point, Southern had introduced 182 Class 377 Electrostars and Southeastern was about to eliminate its final Mk 1 slam-door electric multiple units (the last were withdrawn on November 19 2005). South West Trains had withdrawn its last Mk 1s from the main line in 2005, but retained two for the Lymington branch until 2009.
Go back to January 1 1998, the start of the first full year of privatised railways and before records began, and a different picture emerges. Trains were certainly older, but franchises were markedly different.
For example, what is now Northern was at that point First North Western (FNW) and Northern Spirit (Regional Railways North East), with trains latterly used by First TransPennine Express (Class 158s) forming part of the NS fleet.
FNW had an elderly fleet. It had 50 Class 101 vehicles (comprising 22 two-car and two three-car sets), with these first-generation diesel multiple units dating from 1956-59. It had eight Mk 1 coaches dating from 1959-61 and 14 Mk 2 coaches dating from 1967-68, as well as three three-car Class 305/5 EMUs dating from 1960 and six four-car Class 309s dating from 1962.
The youngest trains it had at the time were 17 three-car Class 323s built in 1992-93. Indeed, of its 374 vehicles, more than a quarter (105) dated from pre-1970.
Over at Northern Spirit, only 21 four-car Class 308/1s dating from 1961 were built before 1984.
Today, these fleets form part of Northern. The franchise has been transformed, but it still retains elderly trains. The Mk 1s, ‘101s’, ‘141s’, ‘305s’, ‘308s’ and 309s’ have all been withdrawn, while a handful of Mk 2s are now hired from Direct Rail Services. Class 170s cascaded from ScotRail (dating from 2002 onwards) will join CAF Class 195 DMUs and ‘331’ EMUs (due for delivery from this year). There are older trains as a result of cascades, such as ‘150s’ and ‘319s’.
Further south, at the start of 1998 Connex South Central (now Southern) had 1,018 coaches, of which the newest were 24 two-car Class 456s delivered in 1990-91. The oldest were ten three-car Class 205 diesel electric multiple units dating from 1956-63, followed
by five four-car Class 411/5 EMUs dating from 1958-63. In total 273 vehicles in its fleet were built before 1970 (26.8%), while 321 (31.5%) were built between 1967 and 1974.
Today, the main Southern fleet comprises Class 377s dating from 2000-13, supplemented by Class 455s from 1982-84.
The Gatwick Express franchise is now part of the Govia Thameslink Railway franchise (along with Southern). Today GatEx operates Class 387/2s delivered in 2016, replacing Class 442s (from 198788) that in turn replaced Class 460s (1999-2001). On January 1 1998, GatEx had been operated by Class 73s (1965-66) hauling Class 488s (converted Mk 2s, 1973-74) and Class 489 luggage vans (1959).
Over at South West Trains, preparations were being made for delivery of the Class 458s. These would be the first EMUs ordered for privatisation to be delivered, although they would have a troubled career.
At the time, the oldest trains in the SWT portfolio were 20 four-car Class 411/5s (1958-63), followed by seven Class 412 EMUs (195963). Today, it is the Class 483s dating from 1938 and used on the Island Line.
However, of SWT’s 990 vehicles, 108 dated from orders completed before 1970, while 444 dated from orders between 1967 and 1974.
Today, South Western Railway has a fleet of 733 Desiro vehicles delivered in 2003-07, with 150 Desiro City coaches being introduced. There are also 180 Juniper vehicles (1998-2000), as well as older Class 455/456 EMUs and Class 158/159 DMUs. The ‘455s’, ‘456s’, ‘458s’ and ‘707s’ are to be replaced by 750 Aventra vehicles by the end of 2020.
The other major London and South East operator was Connex South Eastern. It had 1,366 vehicles, of which 628 were slamdoor Mk 1s dating from 1958-74, although only 240 dated from orders completed before 1970. Today, Southeastern operates the Class 375 and ‘376’ Electrostars (1999-2005) that replaced the Mk 1s (618 vehicles), as well as 29 six-car Class 395s (2007-09). It has also recently taken delivery of cascaded Class 377/1s (2002) and ‘377/5s’ (2009) from Southern.
All told, the three major LSE operators on the former Southern Region at the start of the first full year of privatisation operated 3,374 vehicles. Of these, more than half (1,734) were slam-door Mk 1s. Today none remains.
North of the Thames, LTS Rail (today’s c2c) had five four-car Class 302s dating from 1958-60 in its fleet, along with 35 four-car Class 310/0s from 1965-67. The newest trains on the LTS were 18 four-car Class 317/1s from 1981-82. But between 1999 and 2002, 74 four-car Class 357s were delivered, sweeping away the older EMUs.
Today, the ‘357s’ remain on the LTS (working for c2c), alongside six four-car Class 387/3s introduced in 2016. An order for 60 Aventra vehicles was placed just before Christmas ( RAIL 843).
First Great Eastern, meanwhile, is now part of Greater Anglia. At the start of 1998 FGE’s fleet included three single-car Class 121 DMUs (1980-81), while its newest trains were 77 four-car Class 321s (1988-90). Today, GA is awaiting delivery of 110 Class 720 Aventras, while 46 Class 315s’ that had also formed part of the FGE fleet in 1998 are starting to be withdrawn in favour of TfL Rail Class 345s.
Arrive at London Euston today and your Virgin West Coast service will be operated by either a Class 221 Super Voyager (2001-02) or a Class 390 Pendolinos (2002-11). But on January 1 1998, VWC’s fleet was entirely locomotive-hauled. It had four High Speed Trains (197682), 15 Class 86s (1965-66), 35 Class 87s (1973-75) and 15 Class 90s (1987-88).
Locomotives are not included in ORR’s age statistics, but coaches are. VWC had 141 Mk 2s (197375) and 291 Mk 3s (1973-86) in its fleet.
Over at Virgin CrossCountry, the oldest stock were Mk 2s dating from 1971, and the newest five Class 158 DMUs dating from 198991. It had a fleet of HSTs, but also had 30 Class 47s and 18 Class 86s to haul 257 Mk 2s.
Today, the oldest train in the CrossCountry fleet are the five HSTs (1976-82) followed by the 1998-built Class 170s. No ‘47s’, ‘86s’ or Mk 2s remain - these were swept away in 2002 by Operation Princess.
North of the Border, HSTs are about to arrive, as are Hitachi Rail Europe Class 385s. These will enable a cascade of trains within Scotland, and south of the Border.
Back on January 1 1998, ScotRail had a varied fleet. Seventeen firstgeneration DMUs were in use with 11 two-car Class 101s (1956-59) and six three-car Class 117s (195960) operating, alongside 45 threecar Class 303 EMUs (1959-61) and five four-car Class 305/5s (1960). The newest trains in its fleet were 22 three-car Class 320 EMUs (1990). Today, the oldest trains are the Class 156s (1987-88), which it operated then.
On the horizon, the national railway is poised for a huge reduction in the age of its fleet, with the Rail Delivery Group’s Long-Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry stating that the average age will drop to just 16 years by 2021, with some £10 billion invested in that period.
As of January 4 2018, there are 6,621 vehicles either on order, or part of orders being delivered for the main line. Will that stop the misleading headlines?