Transport for London sets out five-year business plan
Transport for London says passenger income for 2018-19 is expected to be very close to the budgeted figure of £4.77 billion, despite delays to Crossrail, and that it is on track to beat cost estimates by £246 million.
The five-year business plan, which was due to be discussed by TfL’s Finance Committee on December 13 (after this issue of RAIL went to press), points out that 15% fewer transport trips are being made in the capital than four years ago, and that bus journeys are declining.
However, journeys on London Underground are beginning to rise again after patchy growth. TfL claims its fares freeze “has helped cushion London from the severity of impacts seen elsewhere around the country”.
The transport body says it expects to break even by 2022-23 - a year later than planned. due to lower demand for transport and the delay to Crossrail. It expects demand for LU to continue the trend from 2017-18, although rail growth is expected to be significantly lower than forecast in 2016, with a 13% increase in journeys by 2023-24.
It plans to change how it is funded by generating more of its income from fares, reaching a planned 64% of total revenue by 2023-24. Grant income is expected to decline as a percentage of income from 24% in 2018-19 to 19% in 2023-24, with charging and commercial income doubling from 8% to 16%.
Operating costs are expected to grow from £6.24bn in 2017-18 to £7.2bn in 2022-23, but TfL says that this will be due to a growth in services, and that operating costs will be £140m lower on a likefor-like basis in 2022-23 than in 2017-18.
It plans to double the operating surplus generated by LU from the current £700m to £1.4bn in 2023-24, but remains committed to introducing new trains on the Tube, resignalling the Piccadilly Line, building Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo Line extension, and upgrades.
Funding major capital projects is a concern, however. TfL says largescale investment will not be possible without capital funding from the Government.