Open Access

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This is the longest period in my entire life I have not been allowed to travel by train (11 weeks and counting). I find it very depressing that there is no clear plan or timescale to allow us back on.

There seems to be a realisation in Comment ( RAIL 906) and from some of RAIL’s commentators (Christian Wolmar and Industry Insider) that social distancing and financially viable public transport will not work.

As promoted through the wider media and by politicians, there is a view that COVID-19 will be ‘over’ at some unspecified point in the future. Insider even suggested that by the time of publication, there would be a timescale to abolish the two-metre distance rule. Well, 11 weeks in… there isn’t.

Neither the UK Government’s nor the Scottish Government’s plans give any indication as to when physical distancing will end. In the Scottish Government’s plan, Phase 4 (its final phase) suggests physical distancing will remain in place.

It is clear that physical distancing will only disappear if vaccines or drugs are found that prevent COVID-19 developing into a condition that requires hospitalisation.

We could hope that numbers of COVID-19 cases become low enough to enable effective monitoring and the quarantine of those that catch it (as in New Zealand), but this is unlikely in the UK without a longer and stricter period of lockdown than has happened so far. Experts also continue to say that an effective vaccine or drug could be many years away and may never be found (as is the case for the common cold and some strains of influenza).

Of course, the rail industry should plan for a possible recovery in its fortunes, but it should also plan for worst-case scenarios (and the various others in between).

In the worst case, physical distancing becomes the ‘new normal’ for many years to come - perhaps permanently. Government could insist that rail and bus continue to be seen as the transport of last resort.

In that situation, Governmentfunded services for the few rail users that have no other choice may continue, although there could be considerable public pressure on politicians to reduce the cost of a service that the majority of taxpayers are banned from using.

But what happens to lines and services where the main custom is from leisure and tourism? They are unlikely to have a future where the Government continues to ban all but essential rail travel (many bus routes outside of urban areas will face a similar dilemma, as will coach tour operators).

Governments (plural intended) in the UK should be lobbied now to moderate their position.

On lines and services where demand for travel is high and too many passengers would present a physical distancing risk, continue to advise that rail is to be used as a last resort. But other lines - particularly in tourist areas, and perhaps even some inter-city services outside of busy times - could be opened up to leisure users in controlled numbers.

We need a more pragmatic policy on public transport use - essential use only at busy times and in populous areas, but leisure use allowed with limits on passenger numbers outside of these areas and times (book ahead if we must).