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A recent article on a proposed SNCF London-Bordeaux service included demand forecasts indicating that a four or five-hour journey time would transfer around 40% of the market from air to rail.
If this sort of positive spin were applied to HS2, it would surely not be firewalled from HS1 - despite the engineering ‘difficulties’.
The value of ‘through’ services has been amply demonstrated within the UK by 30 years of otherwise unnecessary diesel use on the East Coast Main Line south of Edinburgh, yet it seems that local interests in North London have been prioritised over the benefits to the wider population of being plugged in directly to the European rail network.
A government committed to “levelling up” and the increasingly vocal city mayors in England are missing a trick. Provision for through European services would be a sound move politically and offer an attractive alternative to the increasingly underwhelming airport experience.
It might take a few years for the market to grow (as is suggested with London-Bordeaux), but the demand will be there. HS2 and the Great Western Main Line link up all British conurbations directly into Old Oak Common.
As primarily a southern West Coast Main Line relief line, HS2 has never been a very popular project, partly because (as with HS1) the primary benefit appears to accrue to London. But the possibility of international travel makes it more worthy of support.
Effective marketing could, for example, create significant inbound tourism by rail into the wider UK. As the Brexiteers used to say: “Believe in Britain”… not just in London.