Question marks over TransPennine upgrade spending

THE Department for Transport faces the risk of further delays and cost increases to the TransPennine Route Upgrade (TRU), according to a report by the influential National Audit Office.

The report reveals that nearly 20% of the £1 billion budget has already been wasted on unnecessary work, because rail ministers keep changing their minds.

And while the NAO says the DfT has now put the TPRU on a firmer footing, there “remains a risk of delays and cost increases” and it is “not yet clear how the upgrade’s intended benefits will be achieved”.

Independent of government and the civil service, the NAO scrutinises public spending for Parliament and helps it to hold government to account.

The 76-mile trans-Pennine route provides the most direct link between Manchester and Leeds, as well as connecting smaller towns and commuter areas.

In 2011, the DfT said it would improve the route. Work on the TRU started in 2015, but was then paused. Since 2017, the DfT has “repeatedly altered the scope of the TRU to meet differing ministerial priorities and budget constraints”, says the NAO.

In its November 2021 Integrated Rail Plan, the DfT announced that the TRU would be delivered as Phase 1 of Northern Powerhouse Rail. As a result, £190 million of the £1bn Network Rail spent on the TRU has been on work no longer needed.

“It took ten years for TRU to gain traction and money was wasted along the way, but the programme is finally moving forward,” said Public Accounts Committee Chairman Meg Hillier.

“The DfT appears to have put things on a firmer footing, but the path is littered with cautionary tales of transport projects that later went off the rails. At such an early stage, there are still a great many hurdles to overcome.

“There are still worrying question marks over how the benefits of the upgrades will actually be achieved. Benefit to the public must be at the forefront of everyone’s mind.”

The NAO says the DfT has “developed a clear case” for investment in the route, but it has “taken too long to decide how to upgrade it”. As a result, in the preCOVID decade, annual passenger journeys increased from 106 million to 137 million, resulting in overcrowding.

In May, the DfT forecast that the TRU will cost £9bn-£11.5bn and will be completed between

2036 and 2041.

The NAO observes that the DfT has not yet committed to funding the electric multiple units needed to achieve the TRU’s full benefits. Until funding is confirmed, “there is no certainty that rolling stock will be at the required level”.

Also, it is “not yet clear” how the DfT and NR will manage inflation, and they have yet to agree how the sharp rises in energy and materials costs will be funded.

It is also “not clear” if NR and its contractors will be able to fully address labour shortages, which may also increase costs.

The DfT and NR are taking “reasonable steps” to set up the TRU for success, including applying lessons from other major infrastructure projects.

“It is still at an early stage, and the real test will come as construction work begins in earnest,” the report says.

“However, by now the

NAO would expect NR and the DfT to know how success will be measured.”

The NAO also finds that:

■ It is not yet clear how other government departments and local government will help deliver the TRU benefits.

■ It has not been determined how the TRU will be managed as part of Northern Powerhouse Rail, to ensure the benefits and connections between the two projects are fully aligned.

■ It is not yet clear if the TRU design will provide long-term resilience to climate change.

NAO Head Gareth Davies said: “Passengers have contended with increasing overcrowding and delays for too long. It is good that TRU plans are now agreed, but there are still significant risks to the programme’s progress that could cause further disruption.

“The DfT, NR and government must work together to manage these challenges and deliver the expected benefits for rail users.”