How does 2022’s HLOS compare with 2017’s and 2012’s?

The are two major differences between 2022’s HLOS and its two predecessors. The first is that 2022 contains no provision for enhancements. DfT is clear that enhancements will be funded separately through government’s usual spending review process.

The second difference is the lack of overt targets in 2022’s HLOS. Both 2012’s and 2017’s contained demand forecasts for passenger numbers into major cities, including each London terminus, in morning and evening peaks. These targets drove much NR and train operator activity, but this market has been heavily reduced by COVID-19.

HLOS 2012 specified a Public Performance Measure (PPM essentially punctuality) of 92.5% moving annual average by the end of Control Period 5 in 2019. The figure for cancelled and significantly late trains had to fall to no more than 2.2% by the same time.

By 2017, DfT had decided not to set national, top-down performance targets, leaving it to NR, train operators and passenger representatives to set “stretching yet realistic” targets. However, HLOS 2017 did retain the capacity targets for trains into major cities.

2012’s HLOS dwelt heavily on network enhancements. It launched a major programme of electrification - including the Great Western Main Line from London to Cardiff, Oxford and Newbury (later cut back, but now mostly delivered), and the North trans-Pennine route from Manchester Victoria and Guide Bridge to Huddersfield, Leeds and on to Colton Junction (later dropped, but now planned once more).

HLOS 2012 also proposed an electric route from Southampton through the Midlands to South Yorkshire for passengers and freight. This was also dropped, but had included the East West Rail route between Oxford and Bedford (now being rebuilt as a diesel railway), as well as the Midland Main Line northwards (now being partially wired).

In financial terms, the associated Statement of Funds Available provided:

■ 2012: Network Grant £18.3bn.

■ 2017: Network Grant £34.7bn.