What’s in store for Rail in 2021?
Editor Mark Nicholls looks at what we might expect for the rail industry in the year ahead, which surely must be better than the previous 12 months.
After a frankly terrible 2020, can this year be one of recovery for the UK’s railways?
There is absolutely no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a hugely negative effect on the UK, its population, its economy and its businesses. But as I write this the first vaccine has been cleared for use, with others expected to follow imminently, and so after a monumental effort by the scientific and medical community to achieve this in such a short time frame there is finally a glimmer of hope.
Backing the railway
Throughout the pandemic the Government has done a similarly huge job trying to support the economy, businesses and the workforce, but even with the best will in the world it can’t help everyone – and of course in the long term it is the taxpayer who will have to foot the massive multibillion pound bill. One industry it has helped is the rail industry through various emergency agreements designed to keep trains running, initially for key workers and then, after the two national lockdowns, as the Train Operating Companies try to attract passengers back. In the longer term this is, of course, unsustainable and the Treasury is already very concerned at the cost, but for now it is obviously necessary.
All the signs indicate it will take a few years for passenger numbers and revenue to return to pre-COVID levels, and that is assuming that the effectiveness and take
up of the vaccines live up to expectations and people have the confidence to travel again. But in the meantime, the railway is going to have to change in many ways and now is probably the best time to do it while traffic levels are reduced. Timetabling is one area in particular. One only has to look at the current punctuality figures to see the railway runs more efficiently when there is more slack in train frequencies, as this reduces the risk of congestion and delays. With the anticipated gradual rise in demand from next summer, frequencies should only be increased steadily to meet that demand. This will require more flexibility in timetable structures to allow more trains to be added outside of the planned summer/winter timetable changes. Capacity can be enhanced by using longer trains as needed, to make use of the rolling stock until such time as frequency increases are required. But this is a hugely complex area because timetable changes by one TOC obviously affect paths of several others, which is why they only usually happen twice a year. Trying to drop more trains in on an ad-hoc basis is far more difficult and so Network Rail’s timetablers are going to have their work cut out.
Similarly, a major reappraisal of the fares structure has to take place to encourage passengers to use the railway and be more suitable to a world now getting use to home working and flexible office attendance. This is vital for commuter networks that are likely to be hit hardest as fewer people travel into major towns and cities at peak times. Several TOCs are already offering or suggesting more flexible ticketing, but this needs to be done on a national scale in a greatly simplified way – and I would suggest to the same standard UK-wide to make it easier to understand. There has been plenty of talk and suggestions over the year, and the still unpublished Williams Report is supposed to place fares reform near or at the top of the agenda. That said, simplifying such a complex system is not easy, and
although the Government has a bigger say now that it is taking all of the financial risk, the TOCs must be involved from the practical side. So don’t expect any massive resolutions immediately, but let’s hope we get some ideas out there for discussion soon.
Major projects
Despite the pandemic, Network Rail has continued to progress projects large and small across the UK. In 2021 the work continues, with one of the largest being the continuation of the £1.2bn East Coast Main Line upgrade. The Christmas/New Year period saw major progress with the King’s Cross improvements, while work to slide the underpass into place at Werrington Jn, just north of Peterborough, continued into January. The latter project should be completed this year and will allow trains to and from the GN/GE joint line to avoid crossing the ECML on the level, thus freeing up paths for ECML high-speed services. At King’s Cross the reopening of the third Gasworks Tunnel bore will add paths and capacity, as will the associated trackwork reorganisation.
Meanwhile, on the Midland Main Line testing of the overhead wires north of Bedford has continued and East Midlands Railway should introduce its Class 360 EMUs on Corby services during the year. Elsewhere various projects on the Trans Pennine route via Huddersfield are due to ramp up, with much effort needed to improve speed and reliability. The continued development of the digital railway is vital for the future, particularly the installation of the European Train Control System. New rolling stock is expected to be required to have this fitted as standard, and among the first routes to employ it will be the southern end of the ECML.
On the West Coast Main Line a large programme of improvements is planned for the spring and summer, with many weekend line closures to enable major track renewals between Rugby-Birmingham, Crewe-Warrington, Preston-Lancaster and Carstairs-Carlisle. In addition, two lines into London Euston station will be closed for two six-week periods (April 2-May 17 and July 31-August 31) to allow work on the new HS2 terminus. For the latter tunnel boring and major construction work will begin in earnest.
Unfortunately, the coronavirus pandemic has further delayed delivery of the Crossrail (Elizabeth Line) project, leading to yet more money being provided to complete it (see the news pages). Final fit out of stations on the central section is progressing and should be completed this year, while more intensive testing and training will be carried out. It had been hoped to begin passenger services later this year, but this has slipped to the first half of 2022.
Aside from the large projects, hundreds of smaller jobs such as track and signalling renewal, station construction and refurbishment, bridge repairs, level crossing replacements and general maintenance work will continue.
Rolling stock
The past few years have seen a massive increase in new rolling stock orders, resulting in hundreds of new trains being introduced across the UK. For now there is no sign of this slowing down, with Bombardier due to deliver dozens of new trains this year to Greater Anglia (Class 720/5), South Western Railway (Class 701), West Midlands Railway (Class 730) and c2c (Class 720/6). CAF is also continuing to deliver its Class 196 DMUs to West Midlands Railway and has started producing the Class 197 for Transport for Wales. Also for TFW, Stadler has commenced production of its Class 398 tram-trains for use on some Welsh metro services. Vivarail is busy with orders for its modernised ex-London Transport D stock for TFW and SWR (The Island Line). Stadler will continue delivering new Class 777 trains to the UK for Merseyrail and also has further orders for TFW to fulfil (Classes 231 and 756), although deliveries aren’t expected until late 2021 to 2023.
On inter-city routes it is likely the first of the ten Class 807 Hitachi EMUs and 13 Class 805 bi-modes will be delivered to Avanti West Coast this year as they are due in service in 2022.
The first ‘new’ locomotives to enter the UK
fleet are set to be delivered this year in the shape of GB Railfreight’s Class 69, a heavily rebuilt Class 56. The first example, 69001 (ex-56031), is due in January for acceptance and initial testing at the Severn Valley Railway. GBRF plans to use them on regular flows to supplement its Class 66 fleet, and as the Class 69 is effectively a Class 66 in 56 clothing, crew training and familiarisation should be straightforward. As reported in last month’s From the Front Coach section, it is planned for the Class 69 to make its passenger debut on the final day of the GBRF 2021 charity railtour (April 18). The freight operator also expects to take delivery of a further five ex-European Class 66s in 2021, becoming 66793-797.
Railtours
After what can only be described as a disastrous 2020, the railtour sector can but hope for better things in 2021. A combination of customer confidence and coronavirus restrictions are going to play a massive part in how the upcoming season evolves, as well as the roll out of the COVID-19 vaccination programme. Social distancing will continue to be a major factor in this but hopefully restrictions might be eased a bit as the year progresses. As was said in January’s From the Front Coach section, many railtour operators are planning big things for the year, with the GBRF 2021 four-day charity tour likely to be the highlight. For those interested in traction, 2021 should see the return of two former East Coast Main Line stalwarts – Class 55 Deltic 55022 Royal Scots Grey and LNER A4 60007 Sir Nigel Gresley, both on Saphos Trains charters. Locomotive Services, which provides the traction for Saphos Trains, has just intriduced its rake of Mk 3s and a DVT in Inter City livery for haulage by its Class 86/87/90s, also in IC colours, which is turning the clock back for many on the West Coast Main Line. Going further back in time, the same operator also has its Blue Pullman-liveried HST, designed to replicate the famous Midland Pullman and bring an extra element of glamour to the charter sector.
Heritage lines
Just as railtour operators suffered badly in 2020, so did the UK’s heritage railways. Although many were able to get some financial assistance during the first UKWIDE lockdown in March, many are registered charities and were limited in what help they could get. With zero fares revenue coming in many found themselves in a perilous position. Although they rely heavily on volunteers, all still have fixed costs that must be paid and the generosity of supporters answering calls for donations has been truly remarkable. Fortunately, the awarding of more than £9m from the National Lottery Heritage Fund as part of the Government’s £1.57bn overall Culture Recovery Fund in late 2020 has provided a very welcome lifeline to dozens of railways up and down the UK. This will enable them to survive the winter months and be in a good position to welcome back visitors in the spring, when most traditionally come back to life.
There is no doubt that 2021 will still be challenging. By the spring, when most lines begin opening again, we can but hope the COVID vaccination programme will allow significant easing of the Tier system restrictions and a return to various visitor attractions across the UK. Time will tell if social distancing will be necessary on board, but even if it is, at least trains could run and, given many people are itching to visit their favourite lines, it is a good bet they will do brisk business. I would implore enthusiasts and railway lovers to support their local or favourite lines as much as possible and help them recover properly from a very dark period.
Challenges remain
Coronavirus will remain the primary enemy for the UK Government, its people, economy and businesses, despite the arrival of the vaccines. This is because the virus will still be there, and until a large proportion of the population is inoculated the risk to older and vulnerable people will continue. That is not a five-minute job, but hopefully a considerable number can be inoculated by Easter. The government has indicated that after Easter restrictions such as social distancing might be eased further. This will follow the relaxation of the tier system, possibly as early as February, conditional of course on the infection rate being low. That’s a lot of variables and so, not surprisingly, it is difficult for TOCs and the Department for Transport to plan for a demand that may or may not be there.
Things might not be as bad for the freight operators, especially those supporting infrastructure project such as HS2 as it moves on to the major construction phase. As I write this, the final Brexit trade negotiations are finely balanced but, despite all the pessimism out there, trade will continue, tariffs or not, provided demand remains for the various products. These will still need to be moved and although international goods movement has been affected by the pandemic it should hopefully rise during the year.
Time will tell, but everything tells me that the road through 2021 will still be bumpy, but perhaps less so than 2020!