Rail market changed forever?
SIR PETER Hendy, boss of Network Rail, warned the National Rail Recovery conference on February 25 that approximately 10% fewer trains should run as the nation opens up again after the latest lockdown, with only around 80% of regular commuters returning. He also suggested that the old style five-day per week commute may also been confined to the history books as more people work from home or split their time between the office and home. However, he was more optimistic about weekend domestic travel, especially if COVID-19 restrictions continue to limit international travel.
He backed up what the recent statistics have shown by saying: “The service doesn’t run better if you put too many trains on the track. We’ve proved that. You shouldn’t try to get more out of the infrastructure than it can give you. All of my experience is that people prefer reliability to journey time.”
Passenger numbers took a dramatic tumble last March and have only partially recovered since, still way down on normal figures. The government’s lockdown easing anticipates a gradual opening up of the economy over the coming months, but many companies have already suggested some workers may continue to work from home for some of their working week. As a result, Sir Peter warns the change could be very dramatic and that commuter routes may only see one peak day a week and that ticketing options should be looked at to even out the service.
Speaking at the conference, Rail Minister Chris Heaton-Harris added that commuting was not going to return to previous levels quickly. “We are not going back to before – this is the new normal. We now need to fundamentally change. Without a concerted cross-industry effort passengers might not return.” Last December the government said it was “committed to providing a more flexible, modern ticketing system for passengers” and has asked the various Train Operating Companies to develop flexible season tickets to provide travellers with better value for money.
Meanwhile Keith Williams, whose much anticipated rail review is due to be published shortly, called the pandemic a “Black Swan” event for the rail industry. The problem is the railway industry had no plan in place if this ever happened, unlike the aviation industry that did.