Census’ role in predicting future
AS always, the latest census information makes for interesting reading. It’s also a more than useful planning tool for local authorities everywhere when informing future decisions.
The headline figure is inevitably the overall growth in population, but it’s the layer or two of detail underneath which provides the baseline information which is really of use.
The 2021 census shows an 18,502 increase in population in Reading over 10 years, to a total of 174,200. That’s an 11.9% increase and well up on both the national rise of 6.3% and the 7.5% across the south east.
It confirms what we already know – as a major employment, transport, education, leisure and cultural hub, Reading is a welcoming place and a town that people want to live in, work in and visit.
Any population increase brings with it more demands. That can be for new housing – particularly affordable homes – and key Council infrastructure, whether public transport, schools, parks and playgrounds, leisure centres, libraries and community centres, to name but a few.
A quick look next door at our neighbours in Wokingham shows the population increase is even higher at 15%.
Its relevant to us in Reading because many of those new Wokingham residents will commute daily into our town for work, which puts added pressure on Reading’s roads and public transport systems, contributing to poor air quality for people who live in the east of our town.
That’s why it is more important than ever for us to pursue our ongoing drive for realistic, affordable and sustainable travel alternatives to the private vehicle, whether by investing in our award-winning bus company and new bus priority corridors, providing new and refurbished train stations or more cycle lanes through our active travel schemes.
As the economic capital of the Thames Valley, and a major employment hub in the south east, it’s no surprise the census shows that people aged 15 to 64 make up more than 70% of the population in Reading.
These are generally working-age people whose chief concerns when it comes to the Council are universal services: bin collections, street cleaning and public transport. At this stage in their lives, they are generally not too concerned with adult or children’s social care, for example, unless they have a family member using those services.
When the bulk of the Council’s budget in most local authorities, goes on social care services, you can see the quandary faced in balancing the budgets for those essential specialist services alongside budgets for universal services.
Tthis is against a backdrop of a decade of Conservative cuts in budgets and a cost of living crisis which is hitting local authorities, as well as the general population.
As is the case nationally, the 65-plus group is increasing. In Reading it has risen by more than 17% over the last decade – just over 3,000 people.
With it comes increased demand for adult social care, but not necessarily in the traditional residential care model we tend to think of. The desire is more for maintaining people’s independence in their own homes for as long as that’s possible.
In Reading, there has been a drop in children aged four and under across this 10-year census period. It stood at 11,937 children in 2011 and fell to 10,200 in 2021. This suggests that the demand for primary school places we saw a few years ago, which meant we had to invest heavily in additional capacity in Reading, will not be sustained.
I wouldn’t say there is anything in the data which comes as a particular surprise to us, but I hope it is a useful little window into the conundrums every local authority needs to take into consideration when planning for the future.