Investigation
Far fewer bikers are dying on UK roads than 20 years ago. We examine the reasons and look at what we can do to reduce it further
We’re crashing less than 20 years ago but why?
SINCE THE YEAR 2000, the number of fatal motorcycle accidents has dropped by 45%, from 605 in 2000 to 336 in 2019.
On the surface, that’s great news of course — less chance of dying enjoying the form of transport or hobby we all love has got to be a good thing and it means less pressure on police forces to target bikers, too.
But the tally is still pretty gruesome — there’s no way to be upbeat about hundreds of motorcyclists losing their lives, even if the trend seems to be positive. So why is this happening? Let’s see how the main theories stack up against the numbers.
‘ABS is undoubtedly having a effect’ GARY BALDWIN, TRAFFIC OFFICER
We’re all getting older and more sensible
It’s true that the average age of motorcyclists is increasing. According to TGI (Target Group Index) research, the average age of a motorcyclist has steadily risen from 41 in 2000 to 45 in 2019 (the average age of a RIDE reader is nearer 55 nowadays though – MW).
However, it seems unlikely that a 10% increase in age could result in such a dramatic fall in casualty figures on its own. Also, the argument that we get wiser as we get older is not wholly confirmed by the age breakdown of 2019’s casualty figures: more 50-59-year-olds were killed or seriously injured than 40-49-year olds (though this could be because there were more older riders on the road last year). But age is definitely a factor in this.
Is this a factor? We’re getting older, but there’s more to it than just that
It’s all down to ABS
Because the police do not usually record whether a bike in a crash had ABS or not, it’s impossible to say with any certainty whether ABS is a factor. But the overall statistics suggest it might be.
By law, all new bikes over 125cc have had to have ABS since 2017, but many big-selling machines were fitted with it well before then — BMW’S R1100GS had it as an option in 1994 and from 2000, an increasing number of high-end models had it. That could explain why KSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) accidents have dropped since a peak in 2003. Some experts are sceptical — several studies with car drivers have shown that ABS did not reduce crashes. It’s thought this was because of risk compensation; the drivers were taking greater risks because they knew the ABS might save them, but when was the last time you or your riding mates deliberately triggered the
ABS or TC on your bike? Of course you don’t.
Is this a factor? It can’t help but save lives in an emergency situation
We’re doing fewer miles
Logically this would seem to have an effect, but it’s not huge because we’re still doing a lot of miles. The total mileage of all motorcycles in 2003 (the peak of KSI accidents in the timespan we’re looking at) was 3.4 billion, according to Department of Transport road-survey figures. By 2019 it had dropped by 12% to 3 billion — significant, but nowhere near the 30% drop in KSIS and 52% drop in fatalities over the same period of time.
Is this a factor? It can’t have THAT much of an effect
The decline of sportsbikes
The theory goes that in the 1990s and 2000s, herds of us were tear-arsing round the countryside and crashing a lot, and as many have decided to buy adventure bikes in the last 15 years, crash figures have reduced. The stats seem to bear this out, with the KSI line following the decline of sportsbike sales from 2000 to 2010. It’s not the whole answer though because if sportsbikes were the only problem, accidents would have carried on falling in the last few years, which they haven’t — there were more fatalities in 2019 than in 2012, despite sportsbike sales dropping by 37%.
Is this a factor? It’s not that they are inherently dangerous, but it seems people who want a sportsbike want to go faster
The gruesome truth
Ultimately, there seems to be no single reason to explain why we’re crashing less than we did 20 years ago. It’s a combination of factors and based on our experience, we reckon improvements in rider aids — ABS and traction control — and advances in kit and tyres, are the biggies.
Motorcycle traffic cop Gary Baldwin spent the last 32 years as a crash investigator. Here’s what he thinks is going on: “The themes I’ve seen over the last 20 years haven’t changed — fundamental skill errors resulting in terrible outcomes. What surprises me the most is that the huge leap in motorcycle performance over the last 20 years hasn’t resulted in a significant increase in highspeed crashes. The advent of ABS is undoubtedly having a effect because many people don’t have the skills to do it properly. But generally, the majority of crashes are still caused by riders’ inability to understand and interpret what’s going on in front of them and make a sensible plan to deal with it. That hasn’t changed at all.”
While a 45% decrease in 20 years is to be celebrated, it seems that the stable numbers over the past ten years mean there is still some way to go.