Resentment over tier decisions will linger longer than the virus
BY the time you read this column, we’ll know whether we’ll be in tier 3 for the start of the New Year, or have moved to Tier 2.
A sense of optimism was growing last week that Lancashire might be moved down to Tier 2, allowing hospitality to re-open and for great social mixing options too.
But – again – at time of writing, that sense of optimism seems to have been replaced with predictions that Tier 3 restrictions will remain in place.
Regardless of the decision, it’s hard to escape a sense that the when it comes to areas like Rossendale, the Government is far more relaxed about imposing tougher sanctions, and not worry about support, than if Rossendale was in Essex, Hertfordshire or Surrey.
This isn’t the chippy comment of a Northerner – look at the evidence. Spread of Coronavirus in high schools has been a challenge around here since September, with classes, and sometimes years, having to go home as soon as a case in school is confirmed.
Yet when it also became evident this is a problem in London, tests are rolled out almost overnight in schools to help reduce the spread of the problem. There’s another example too.
Prior to the reintroduction of tiers earlier this month, Lancashire lobbied hard not to be treated as one area.
Bluntly, it is daft to impose the same restrictions on Bacup as are being imposed on Fleetwood, given the two are 40 miles apart, and almost an hour in commuting time too.
The answer was no from Government. Too complicated. Yet when it becomes clear that Essex and Hertfordshire would have to go into Tier 3 under the same logic earlier this week, suddenly it’s possible to set the tier zones based on borough council areas – something the Scottish government has proved is entirely doable for a number of weeks now.
Indeed, it was possible back in the autumn too, when the Government was able to change restrictions between Blackburn and Rossendale, and even between Blackburn and Darwen, to reflect local outbreaks of Coronavirus.
Both points are particularly relevant to Rossendale, largely because so much focus is put on the infection rate per 100,000 of the population.
It’s a measure which is desired to be a level measure, providing a snapshot of infection rates across the country.
But it also penalises areas like Rossendale, with a population of around 70,000 people.
It takes far fewer people being tested positive for Rossendale’s rate per 100,000 to seem incredibly high than it does in, say, Preston, Blackburn or central Manchester.
According to data this week, over the last seven days, 161 people in Rossendale have been tested as having Covid-19 - a rate of 225 per 100,000. That puts Rossendale’s infection rate above Preston, yet in Preston, 319 people have tested positive.
The fact we live in a relatively rural area also reduces the risk of transmission, something the populations of Blackburn, Manchester and, indeed, central London boroughs, can’t say either.
In Stacksteads the rate is 175, in Rawtenstall it is 289, in Haslingden it is 114, Helmshore 211 and in Bacup it is 309. Overall the national rate is 188 - and in parts of London, it’s taken to getting to nearer 400 cases per 100,000, in much more densely populated areas, for a Tier 3 decision to be taken.
None of this is to suggest that the tier decisions are wrong.
But the problem for those responsible for justifying the decisions locally – primarily Rossendale MP Jake Berry – is that increasingly it feels unfair.
And that sense of unfairness will linger longer than the virus, and add further weight to the growing belief that far from being determined to ‘level up’ the North, so far, the current government has only managed to make the wealth and health divide even greater.