EUROPE’S CLOSE QUARTERS
Which teams will make the last eight of the Heineken Champions Cup? We assess each pool
NLY THREE teams – Racing 92, Saracens and Toulouse – remain unbeaten in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup and only three clubs – Lyon, Scarlets and Wasps – are definitely out of the running for the quarter-finals.
Okay, the European campaigns of Cardiff Blues, Bath and Leicester are all but over too, but this month’s final two pool rounds are likely to be full of twists and turns. And the selections for those teams whose hopes are over could play a significant role in determining who makes the last eight – if they rest players, they make it easier for opponents to pick up a full five points.
The race to top Pool One will come down to the Leinster v Toulouse game in Dublin on 12 January. The French club, whose full-back Thomas Ramos is the top point-scorer this term, won the first fixture by a point, but the holders will be heavy favourites on home turf.
Pool Two is wide open, with only four points separating the four teams, so it’s likely there won’t be a best runner-up from this group. Munster, with their European pedigree and Exeter to come to Thomond Park in the final round, look in the best position. However, Gloucester could put a spanner in their works at Kingsholm, despite the likely absence of Danny Cipriani with a chest injury.
OTwo-time European champions Saracens are odds-on to win Pool Three and are set to battle it out with Racing to be the top seeds. Glasgow are still in the mix, too, and if Cardiff Blues decide to pick a weaker team in round five, a bonus-point win will be the target so that they can push for a runners-up spot.
Racing are running away with Pool Four, both in the points and stats charts – they have made 55 clean breaks in the first four rounds, more than any other team. Ulster will be hoping to reach the last eight for the first time since 2014 and with Leicester likely to switch their focus to the domestic front, a full five points at Welford Road in the last round would help their cause.
Pool Five is perhaps most intriguing as all four teams theoretically have a chance of qualifying for the last eight.
Edinburgh lead the way on 15 points but play Toulon away and Montpellier at home. Toulon could opt to rest players given their Top 14 travails but it’s still a tough place to win, while Montpellier should see off a Newcastle side who will be concentrating on the Gallagher Premiership. So it could all come down to that final game at BT Murrayfield on Friday 18 January…
Predicted quarter-finalists: Saracens, Racing 92, Leinster, Munster, Edinburgh, Toulouse, Glasgow and Ulster.