Bernard Jackman
LEINSTER ARE the bullies of the Pro14. They have the strongest squad, the most money, the best pathway. But they judge themselves on European titles and after their quarter-final defeat by Saracens, they now have one title in eight Champions Cups. You can’t talk about legacies with that record.
The problem is that it’s happened so often. England came to the Aviva at the start of 2019 and rocked Ireland. In the European final, Saracens’ power game was too strong for Leinster. The World Cup warm-up at Twickenham was a hammering, leaving a psychological mark on Ireland at the World Cup.
Ireland went to England in this year’s Six Nations and again it’s pretty demoralising how the game unfolded. And now Leinster have been outplayed badly at the set-piece and breakdown by a depleted Saracens team.
It’s a huge blow to Leinster and to Ireland, as Leinster produce the most players for Ireland. There’s going to be that nagging doubt that when we come up against England or France, physically powerful sides, are we able to compete?
That Leinster defeat will harm the players because when you get beaten up like that it does take a while to recover. Mentally, it hurts confidence. That’s the challenge for Ireland in the remaining 2020 Six Nations games.
It’s a tight table and it’s about who adapts quickest. It helps that Ireland play Italy before the final round because it gives Andy Farrell and his team a week to get the cohesion in place.
Then we go to Paris. France are better coached than ever and some of their young players have unbelievable talent. In theory Ireland are capable of winning there but the problem is you’re basing their confidence on Ireland’s form in 2018 and this group haven’t shown that form. It’s more hope than expectation.
Two bonus-point wins will give Ireland the title, so I don’t think there’s going to be any experimentation. That said, you must try to pick players on form because if you’re too loyal to underperforming stars, such as Jacob Stockdale, you lose the confidence of the back-up guys.
James Lowe qualifies for Ireland from November and I think he’ll play once he’s available. He’s a phenomenal player but the Saracens game was like a Test match and he wasn’t able to bully people. Against lesser sides he runs over wingers but he got smashed into touch. He doesn’t have outstanding pace or footwork, he’s more of a physical specimen. Will that be as effective at Test level? The jury is out.
At nine, Conor Murray hasn’t been on form but no one is putting their hand up to replace him. The thing in John Cooney’s favour is he’s been playing behind a dominated pack at Ulster, so he’s not getting any go-forward ball. I’d choose him based on last year, when he showed in Europe that he’s a big-game player. Up front, Ireland need Tadhg Furlong back badly. Andrew Porter had a very difficult day against Saracens. He’s going to be a brilliant tighthead prop, but you want a world-class operator for those first 60 minutes to give you scrum solidity. At hooker, Rónan Kelleher is a more powerful player than Rob Herring.
We have to get our most athletic players into the team, which is why I’d put Ryan Baird in the match-day squad. Caelan Doris has been in great form and I’d have him at six (ahead of Peter O’Mahony), with CJ Stander at eight.
Will Connors is very close to a cap but when Dan Leavy gets up to speed (after injury) he gets in, 100%. He’s like the Curry boys, an abrasive, hard, athletic player good on both sides of the ball.
Who will win the title? My hunch is that France have a great chance. Jackman’s Ireland XV v Italy: J Larmour; A Conway, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, K Earls; J Sexton, J Cooney; C Healy, R Kelleher, T Furlong, I Henderson, J Ryan, C Doris, J van der Flier, CJ Stander.