FUTURE OF UNION LIES IN HANDS OF 500,000 VOTERS, WARNS DOSSIER

THE fate of the Union between England and Scotland could be decided by only 500,000 voters, according to a Government dossier.

An internal Ministry of Defence (MoD) briefing document claims the number could ‘swing the result either way’ in next year’s referendum.

A spokesman for the Better Together campaign admitted there is ‘all to play for’ in the bid to save the Union.

Polls suggest the No camp has a commanding lead over the separatists but insiders believe complacency is the biggest threat to victory.

There will be 4.17million people aged 16 or over eligible to vote on September 1 , 2014.

Elections expert Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said average polling figures based on a 75 per cent turnout point to a result of 1,252,000 Yes votes and 1, 7 ,000 No votes.

That would hand Better Together a majority of 626,000, which means Yes Scotland must convince 313,000 No voters to change their minds. Professor Curtice added: ‘But if Yes wins over “don’t knows” and non-voters rather than current No supporters, they will need more than this.’

The MoD briefing is headlined: ‘Why does this [the referendum] matter?’

The answers include: ‘The historic significance of the possible end of the Union; the implications for the rest of the UK – our economy, our standing, our politics; the cost and disruption of separation; government policy is to argue, and win, the case for the Union; 500,000 voters could swing the referendum either way.’

A Better Together spokesman said: ‘If people believe being a strong part of the UK is best for Scots jobs, pensions and savings, they have to vote for it.’

A spokesman for Yes Scotland said: ‘By taking the facts and Yes message to voters across the country, we are laying the ground for a winning independence vote and a fairer, more prosperous Scotland.’