Where switching allegiance could swing the results
WITH the polls pointing to an SNP landslide in which Nicola Sturgeon’s party could pick up almost every seat in Scotland, the 2015 General Election is set to witness tactical voting on an unprecedented scale. Here Scottish Political Editor ALAN RODEN eval
1 ABERDEEN NORTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Frank Doran (retiring) MAJORITY: 8,361
TACTICAL VOTE: Strong traditional support for the Lib Dems means their former supporters could be crucial for Labour MSP Richard Baker as he tries to make the jump to Westminster but his chances appear slim.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
2 ABERDEEN SOUTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Dame Anne Begg MAJORITY: 3,506
TACTICAL VOTE: A two-way fight between the Lib Dems and Labour in recent years means it is the former Lib Dem vote that will decide this result – and there is anecdotal evidence they are flocking to Anne Begg’s cause.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
3 AIRDRIE AND SHOTTS
PARTY: Labour MP: Pamela Nash MAJORITY: 12,408
TACTICAL VOTE: The Tories and Lib Dems are not at the races here, and there is a real fight between Labour and the SNP. Pamela Nash has run a highly visual campaign, with the support of a number of Labour grandees, but will need voters to come out for her on polling day.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
4 ANGUS
PARTY: SNP MP: Mike Weir MAJORITY: 3,282
TACTICAL VOTE: He might be virtually invisible at Westminster, but defeating Mike Weir appears unlikely in the current political climate – and only the Tories could manage it.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
5 ARGYLL AND BUTE
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Alan Reid MAJORITY: 3,431
TACTICAL VOTE: All four main parties enjoy strong support here, risking a Unionist split. Alan Reid’s hopes of returning to Westminster are very slim – he appears to have been abandoned by the party. Only a tactical vote for the Tories could defeat the Nationalists.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
6 AYR, C’ICK & C’NOCK
PARTY: Labour MP: Sandra Osborne MAJORITY: 9,911
TACTICAL VOTE: A tactical voting example: The Tories traditionally receive more than 10,000 votes and if many shift to Labour the SNP tide will be stopped.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
7 BANFF AND BUCHAN
PARTY: SNP MP: Eilidh Whiteford MAJORITY: 4,027
TACTICAL VOTE: There is little chance the SNP will be stopped in Alex Salmond’s former seat, but the Tories are the only other party at the races.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
8 BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH & SELKIRK
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Michael Moore MAJORITY: 5,675
TACTICAL VOTE: A traditional twoway battle between the Lib Dems and Tories could split the Unionist vote, but the Tories are now cl early in t he l ead. T he Conservative’s John Lamont needs tactical votes here to stop the SNP sneaking through the middle.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
9 CAITHNESS, S’LAND AND EASTER ROSS
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: John Thurso MAJORITY: 4,826
TACTICAL VOTE: Labour voters who normally back the runner-up here must switch to the Lib Dems if they want to stop the SNP. John Thurso’s name recognition could just save him, but it won’t be easy.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
10 CENTRAL AYRSHIRE
PARTY: Labour MP: Brian Donohoe MAJORITY: 12,007
TACTICAL VOTE: There are thousands of Tories in this constituency and veteran MP Brian Donohoe’s hopes of another term rely on them voting tactically for Labour.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
11 COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & BELLSHILL
PARTY: Labour MP: Tom Clarke MAJORITY: 20,714
TACTICAL VOTE: Lib Dem and Tory support is virtually non-existent here, so Tom Clarke is incredibly vulnerable to the SNP surge – despite his whopping majority.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
12 CUMBERNAULD, KILSYTH & KIRKINTILLOCH EAST
PARTY: Labour MP: Gregg McClymont MAJORITY: 13,755
TACTICAL VOTE: There are not enough Tories and Lib Dems to make tactical voting a key issue here, although their supporters are unlikely to have any trouble backing impressive brainbox Gregg McClymont.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
13 DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY
PARTY: Labour MP: Russell Brown MAJORITY: 7,449
TACTICAL VOTE: A key tactical voting seat. This is fertile Tory territory, but Labour remains best placed to stop the SNP and the Conservatives are targeting resources i n Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
14 DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & T’DALE
PARTY: Conservative MP: David Mundell MAJORITY: 4,194
TACTICAL VOTE: Scotland’s only Tory MP is under massive threat, according to the polls. Any remaining Labour voters must switch to the Conservatives if they want to halt the Nationalist surge, but the signs are not promising.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
15 DUNDEE EAST
PARTY: SNP MP: Stewart Hosie MAJORITY: 1,821
TACTICAL VOTE: Labour is the only party that can defeat the SNP here, but it is a forlorn hope.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
16 DUNDEE WEST
PARTY: Labour MP: Jim McGovern (retiring) MAJORITY: 7,278
TACTICAL VOTE: The seat was written off by Labour until Mr McGovern’s decision to stand down. Candidate Michael Marra should fare better, but tactical voting is unlikely to be enough to prevent an SNP victory.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
17 D’FERMLINE & W FIFE
PARTY: Labour MP: Thomas Docherty MAJORITY: 5,470
TACTICAL VOTE: The once strong Lib Dem vote here is crucial – if it swings behind Thomas Docherty, he could hold on, and there is growing evidence that he is winning over supporters.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
18 E. DUNBARTONSHIRE
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Jo Swinson MAJORITY: 2,184
TACTICAL VOTE: Once a Labour target seat, the party’s support has completely evaporated and only Lib Dem Women’s Minister Jo Swinson can defeat the SNP. She will need help from Tory voters as well, in what is arguably one of the fiercest contests in Scotland.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
19 E KILBRIDE, S’HAVEN & LESMAHAGOW
PARTY: Labour MP: Michael McCann MAJORITY: 14,503
TACTICAL VOTE: If enough Tory voters switch to Labour, Michael McCann could hold on – but it won’t be easy.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
20 EAST LOTHIAN
PARTY: Labour MP: Fiona O’Donnell MAJORITY: 12,258
TACTICAL VOTE: With around 18,000 Tory and Lib Dem votes at the last election, this is a prime example of where tactical votes from Unionists could decide the outcome. SNP candidate George Kerevan has infuriated many by describing Westminster as the ‘enemy camp’ and is likely to face a surge in tactical voting.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
21 EAST RENFREWSHIRE
PARTY: Labour MP: Jim Murphy MAJORITY: 10,420
TACTICAL VOTE: The Scottish Labour leader remains in trouble, according to the polls. But in what was once the safest Tory seat in Scotland, Conservative voters should be able to rescue him tomorrow.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
22 EDINBURGH EAST
PARTY: Labour MP: Sheila Gilmore MAJORITY: 9,181
TACTICAL VOTE: There are enough voters who backed the Lib Dems in 2010 to make a difference if they vote tactically, but Labour’s best hope is for the Greens to split the pro-independence support.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
23 EDINBURGH N & LEITH
PARTY: Labour MP: Mark Lazarowicz MAJORITY: 1,724
TACTICAL VOTE: The Lib Dems expected to win here in 2010, but fell short. They’re certainly not trying to win this time, and the Tories also have strong support here, so Labour could hold on through tactical votes – despite its small majority.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
24 EDINBURGH SOUTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Ian Murray MAJORITY: 316
TACTICAL VOTE: The most marginal seat in Scotland and the top tactical voting battleground, where around 1 0,000 Tory supporters hold the balance of power. The Conservatives cannot win, so a tactical shift to rising star Ian Murray could see him defy the odds and return to Westminster. The SNP candidate here has been exposed as a vile internet troll.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
25 EDINBURGH STH WST
PARTY: Labour MP: Alistair Darling (retiring) MAJORITY: 8,447
TACTICAL VOTE: As in neighbouring Edinburgh South, it is Tory voters who hold the key here. If they want to stop the SNP, they will have to vote f or Labour’s candidate Ricky Henderson, a popular local councillor.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
26 EDINBURGH WEST
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Mike Crockart MAJORITY: 3,803
TACTICAL VOTE: Once a Labour target seat, but no more. The party is still canvassing, but it has no chance and Labour supporters need to back the Lib Dems if they want to stop the SNP.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
27 FALKIRK
PARTY: Labour/Independent MP: Eric Joyce (retiring) MAJORITY: 7,843
TACTICAL VOTE: Disgraced MP Eric Joyce’s former party – which has offered the uninspiring choice of former MSP Karen Whitefield to voters – is plagued by infighting and is surely destined for defeat. Even the most ardent Lib Dem or Tory Unionist would struggle to find a reason to back Labour here.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
28 GLASGOW CENTRAL
PARTY: Labour MP: Anas Sarwar MAJORITY: 10,551
TACTICAL VOTE: There are a surprising number of Tory supporters in the heart of Glasgow and they could help Anas Sarwar creep over the line in a seat in which the SNP appears to have stepped back from.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
29 GLASGOW EAST
PARTY: Labour MP: Margaret Curran MAJORITY: 11,840
TACTICAL VOTE: That majority should fool no one – this is a brutal two-way battle, where parties are throwing all their resources. Shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran is up against SNP rising star Natalie McGarry, and there are not enough Tories or Lib Dems to make this a tactical fight.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
30 GLASGOW NORTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Ann McKechin MAJORITY: 3,898
TACTICAL VOTE: Those who voted
Lib Dem in 2010 are crucial here, with the party polling only 4 per cent. If they swing to Labour, former shadow Scottish secretary Ann McKechin may just manage to cling on, but the party appears to have given up hope.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
31 GLASGOW NTH EAST
PARTY: Labour MP: Willie Bain MAJORITY: 15,942
TACTICAL VOTE: With Labour winning nearly 70 per cent of the vote in 2010, tactical voting does not come into play. If the party loses here, it will have been wiped off the map.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
32 GLASGOW NORTH WEST
PARTY: Labour MP: John Robertson MAJORITY: 13,611
TACTICAL VOTE: More Lib Dems and Tories than some parts of Glasgow, but if Labour finds itself relying on their votes to win here then it is in serious trouble elsewhere in Scotland.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
33 GLASGOW SOUTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Tom Harris MAJORITY: 12,658
TACTICAL VOTE: Former Lib Dem voters could be crucial for Tom Harris, as could be support from Glasgow’s oft-forgotten Tory-voting areas which lie in this constituency.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
34 GLASGOW SOUTH WEST
PARTY: Labour MP: Ian Davidson MAJORITY: 14,671
TACTICAL VOTE: Ian Davidson is in big trouble here, the polls suggest, and there are not enough Tory or Lib Dem voters to make a difference.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
35 GLENROTHES
PARTY: Labour MP: Lindsay Roy (retiring) MAJORITY: 16,448
TACTICAL VOTE: A by-election here in 2008 showed that Lib Dem and Tory voters can be squeezed when it is clear there is a two-way fight between Labour and the SNP. Labour believes its candidate Melanie Ward, seen as a future star, can win here – but she needs tactical help.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
36 GORDON
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Sir Malcom Bruce (retiring) MAJORITY: 6,748
TACTICAL VOTE: Few politicians are as loved and hated in equal measure as Alex Salmond. The former SNP leader thinks he has it in the bag, but there will be an unprecedented tactical vote for the Lib Dems, who are now talking up their chances of scaring Mr Salmond.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
37 INVERCLYDE
PARTY: Labour MP: Iain McKenzie MAJORITY: 5,838
TACTICAL VOTE: A 2011 by-election victor, Iain McKenzie’s short tenure as an MP is surely set to come to an end. There are some Tory and Lib Dem supporters who may vote tactically, but probably not enough.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
38 INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH & STRATHSPEY
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Danny Alexander MAJORITY: 8,765
TACTICAL VOTE: A fierce election battle is raging here. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander is rolling in campaign cash: as George Osborne’s sidekick, he now needs Tories to rally to his cause.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
39 K’NOCK & LOUDOUN
PARTY: Labour MP: Cathy Jamieson MAJORITY: 12,378
TACTICAL VOTE: More Tory voters live here than many would expect. They could be key to the outcome.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
40 K’CALDY & C’BEATH
PARTY: Labour MP: Gordon Brown (retiring) MAJORITY: 23,009
TACTICAL VOTE: That massive majority is going to be slashed so much that Tory and Lib Dem votes could still be crucial for Labour’s candidate, local councillor Kenny Selbie, if he is to avoid the humiliation of losing Gordon Brown’s seat.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
41 LANARK & H’TON EAST
PARTY: Labour MP: Jimmy Hood MAJORITY: 13,478
TACTICAL VOTE: He’s somewhat invisible at Westminster and is likely to struggle to make it back there, but there are enough traditional Tories and Lib Dems here to make a difference.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
42 L’LITHGOW & E FALKIRK
PARTY: Labour MP: Michael Connarty MAJORITY: 12,553
TACTICAL VOTE: A sizable chunk of Tory and Lib Dem support which could make a difference, although many are likely to find it hard to stomach voting for Michael Connarty, who once said MPs can’t be expected to ‘shop at 99p stores’.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
43 LIVINGSTON
PARTY: Labour MP: Graeme Morrice MAJORITY: 10,791
TACTICAL VOTE: Up against SNP star of the future Hannah Bardell, Graeme Morrice is in trouble here. But there were more than 10,000 votes for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2010.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
44 MIDLOTHIAN
PARTY: Labour MP: David Hamilton (retiring) MAJORITY: 10,349
TACTICAL VOTE: A Labour seat since its creation in 1955, the fact that the SNP could win here tells its own story. There has been strong Lib Dem support in the past, and Labour’s Kenny Young – who is still in with a shout – will need those voters to back him tomorrow.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
45 MORAY
PARTY: SNP MP: Angus Robertson MAJORITY: 5,676
TACTICAL VOTE: Moray recorded a massive No vote and even Angus Robertson’s former election agent wants people to vote Tory – the only party that can beat the Nationalists here. But few expect anything other than an SNP victory.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
46 M’WELL & WISHAW
PARTY: Labour MP: Frank Roy MAJORITY: 16,806
TACTICAL VOTE: Labour is confident of holding on here, but there are a few thousand Lib Dem and Tory voters whose support may help the party over the line.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
47 NA H-EILEANAN AN IAR (WESTERN ISLES)
PARTY: SNP MP: Angus MacNeil MAJORITY: 1,885
TACTICAL VOTE: The majority looks small, but so is the electorate. Unlikely to be anything that tactical voting can do to stop an SNP victory here.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
48 N AYRSHIRE & ARRAN
PARTY: Labour MP: Katy Clark MAJORITY: 9,895
TACTICAL VOTE: Over 7,000 Tory voters could make the difference here if some of them switch to Labour. But Left-winger Katy Clark does not make it an appetising choice for them.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
49 NORTH EAST FIFE
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring) MAJORITY: 9,048
TACTICAL VOTE: The Lib Dems are the best placed Unionist party even if candidate Tim Brett is unlikely to inspire voters. But SNP strategic mastermind Stephen Gethins has a likeability that crosses traditional party allegiances, and is surely heading to Westminster.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
50 OCHIL & S PERTHSHIRE
PARTY: Labour MP: Gordon Banks MAJORITY: 5,187
TACTICAL VOTE: A key tactical battleground where Tory voters could prevent Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh winning for the SNP if they back Labour. How ironic that would be: Tasmina is a former Tory candidate.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
51 ORKNEY & SHETLAND
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Alistair Carmichael MAJORITY: 9,928
TACTICAL VOTE: Even if they win the other 58 seats in Scotland, the Nationalists surely won’t win here. If they do, the SNP MP will be the Etoneducated Danus George Moncrieff Skene, chief of the clan Skene.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW
52 PAISLEY & R’SHIRE NTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Jim Sheridan MAJORITY: 15,280
TACTICAL VOTE: There are enough Lib Dems and Tories here to make a difference, and Jim Sheridan is likely to need their help as his party activists focus on holding neighbouring Paisley and Renfrewshire South.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
53 PAISLEY AND RENFREWSHIRE SOUTH
PARTY: Labour MP: Douglas Alexander MAJORITY: 16,614
TACTICAL VOTE: The shadow foreign secretary is facing defeat by a 20year-old student, according to the polls. Every single vote will be crucial for Labour as it wants to avoid humiliation.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
54 PERTH & N PERTHSHIRE
PARTY: SNP MP: Pete Wishart MAJORITY: 4,379
TACTICAL VOTE: A hotbed of tactical voting activity. Pete Wishart is a controversial figure and a cross-party campaign to persuade people to vote Tory here means that he faces a tougher-than-expected test at the ballot box.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
55 ROSS, SKYE & LOCHABER
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Charles Kennedy MAJORITY: 13,070
TACTICAL VOTE: The polls have him behind, but the ever-popular Charles Kennedy has sky-high personal ratings – and thousands of Labour and Tory supporters may lend him their votes.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
56 RUTHERGLEN AND HAMILTON WEST
PARTY: Labour MP: Tom Greatrex MAJORITY: 21,002
TACTICAL VOTE: Despite a massive majority, there are still sizeable numbers of Tory and Lib Dem supporters who can make a difference. Labour’s Tom Greatrex has excelled since his election in 2010 and is likely to win over tactical voters.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
57 STIRLING
PARTY: Labour MP: Dame Anne McGuire (retiring) MAJORITY: 8,354
TACTICAL VOTE: Labour faces defeat here unless there is a major tactical switch to candidate Johanna Boyd by the thousands who supported the Tories at the last election.
LIKELY IMPACT: MEDIUM
58 WEST ABERDEENSHIRE AND KINCARDINE
PARTY: Lib Dem MP: Sir Robert Smith MAJORITY: 3,684.
TACTICAL VOTE: The ultimate tactical voting battleground seat where a Unionist split could see the SNP jump from a distant fourth place to first. The Conservatives are now best placed to stop the Nationalists, and Lib Dem voters will need to recognise that if they don’t want a Nationalist MP.
LIKELY IMPACT: HIGH
59 WEST D’BARTONSHIRE
PARTY: Labour MP: Gemma Doyle MAJORITY: 17,408
TACTICAL VOTE: There was a Yes vote here last year, meaning tactical voting could be key for Labour. Unionists will have no difficulty voting for Gemma Doyle, who has i mpressed at Westminster since her election in 2010.
LIKELY IMPACT: LOW