Tsipras plays a high-risk game

As we know from the last days of Lehman Brothers, when frustrated Federal Reserve and Us Treasury policymakers put the broker-dealer into Chapter 11, hasty decisions can have dire consequences. A government bail- out for a Lehman could potentially have brought the financial system back from the brink.

so it is with Greece. The Troika has been doing all in its powers to encourage prime minister Alexis Tspiras to come up with a reform plan including a restructuring of generous pensions. But the Greek leader has continued to play hardball. Now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has walked out of the talks, raising the risk of a €1.6bn (£1.1bn) default at the end of June. Clearly, it is not in the interests of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Commission or the IMF to let Greece go.

Despite the efforts of the markets to stay calm in the face of the Greek default threat there is no room for complacency. As was the case when Barclays was required by then-chancellor Alistair Darling to pull back from a rescue of Lehman, the eventual consequences of failure could be seriously underestimated.

The exposure of the ECB to Greece is extensive. It is singlehandedly holding up the Greek banking system amid capital flight and is estimated to have at least €80bn at stake. European commercial banks are similarly exposed.

Politically, a Greek default would also be dangerous. spain, which looks to be on the road to recovery, could weaken in its resolve if it believes there is a way of escaping its creditors and debts. The impact of that on bonds and credit across the eurozone could be dramatic.

Back in Athens the frustration is palpable. Admittedly Greece’s super-rich, such as the ship-owners, have little skin in this game in that they pay few taxes and moved their assets out a long time ago.

But they are also aware that confidence is draining away and the idea of Greece having to turn to the Chinese (they’ve already bought the port of Piraeus) or Moscow for salvation will fill them with dread.

There is a belief in Athens that the Left-wing syriza government really wants an implosion and a different settlement.

Five years ago the Argentine choice of default and devaluation would have made a great deal of sense.

But having gone through the hardship, passed a host of reforms and stuck with the euro, the ‘double D’ solution no longer looks as attractive.

If the debt were to be ditched, it is likely it could face years of battles in the courts as private creditors seek to regain their cash. Other than tourism, it has little to export at present because so much productive capacity has been savaged.

One has to believe that the IMF’s decision to take a rest is tactical. Eventually, Tsipras will come to his senses and stop treating the Troika, that is seeking a peace-in-our-time document, as absurd. But with the Communists occupying the finance ministry and the Brussels talks failing, the risk of steering into the rocks grows.

Cloudy Sky

IT is the ambition of ageing business leaders, with dynastic plans, to stay around as long as possible so that the succession that they want can be put in place.

James Murdoch come badly unstuck during his period at News Corporation at the time of the hacking scandal but has been rehabilitated at 21st Century Fox, in which the Murdoch family own a 39pc stake. He looks set to be named as chief executive and 84-year- old Rupert Murdoch’s successor.

Investors will remain calm about the new order, providing the current president and chief operating officer Chase Carey can be retained, at the very least in an advisory role.

The younger Murdoch is considered as entrepreneurial as his father but less sentimental about assets that are not paying their way. He also has shown a willingness to invest and modernise. What is less clear is where sky fits into the group’s longer-term plans.

At present it faces competitive challenges in Europe from John Malone’s Liberty Global and BT. And there’s been some speculation that, at the right price, the younger Murdoch might be willing to cut this arm of the empire. Fascinating.

Aerospace exit

ONE of the few manufacturing areas where Britain has competitive advantage is aerospace.

so a report from the think-tank Civitas showing 25pc of the UK aerospace supplier chain has fallen into foreign ownership since 1990 must be taken seriously. Civitas argues that cherry-picking of our most valuable companies has reduced the scope for improving trade performance and it calls for new safeguards to protect UK technology.

Couldn’t agree more.