THE RUMBLE
ENGLAND AND WALES READY TO DO BATTLE:
WHEN the feuding neighbours resume hostilities tonight, it will be an epic encounter worthy of a far later stage of this World Cup. England versus Wales should have been a semi-final, but the draw has conspired against t hat scenario.
Instead, the teams ranked No 3 and 4 respectively in the world will lock horns in a pool clash with no safety net. It is not quite a knockout clash, but it is not far off. The winners will be on course f or qualification from the ‘ Pool of Death’, the losers will be staring i nto t he abyss. No 2- r anked Australia lie in wait for both.
Stuart Lancaster, England’s head coach, summed up the scenario as follows: ‘It is not the end of the World Cup, this game, it is not the end of the world. But all roads do lead to Saturday.’
There is no escape from the equation which now looms large; that three major powers in the game are gunning for two places in the last eight and the play- off process is about to commence. Prepare for major casualties.
Part one of the three-way tussle f or Pool A supremacy i s the subject of conflicting r ecent evidence. The balance of power has fluctuated between England and Wales. Moral advantage has flitted back and forth across the Severn Bridge.
At the start of the summer, the force appeared to be with the English hosts. They had been closer to winning the Six Nations, they would be at home — with all the attendant benefits — and they had the assurance of pack power to fall back on.
But the rug has been pulled out from under Lancaster’s forwards. The conviction built up over years of matching or trumping all-comers has unravelled.
They were pushed around twice by France last month and their set-piece problems have become so pronounced t hat t hey f ound themselves on the back foot in the scrum against Fiji last Friday.
Yet, signs of England floundering up front gave way to a torrent of Welsh injuries. Having already lost Jonathan Davies, Warren Gatland had to come to terms with the withdrawal of goal-kicking icon Leigh Halfpenny and scrum-half Rhys Webb — a mainstay of the side in the last two years.
Last weekend, Wales suffered another raft of medical scares and suddenly the force seemed to be with England again.
But then came the latest twist; Lancaster appearing to concede the initiative by selecting a side designed in part to negate the threat posed by Jamie Roberts and charged with blasting a way through the suffocating, aggressive Welsh defence.
Gatland has been gi ven a pre-match gift. No matter how much England deny panic, Wales will take heart from the belief that they have the hosts worried.
And that’s not all. Wales have circled the wagons after being warned by World Cup organisers over using players from outside their squad in training and doubtless seized on private indignation about Sam Burgess’s ‘Who’s that?’ remark about Scott Williams.
Recent history provides little distinction between these well- matched teams. Since Gatland took charge of Wales at the start of 2008, the head- to- head record with England is 5-5. Since Lancaster picked up the England baton after the last World Cup, the record is 2-2. But what the home side have in their favour is victory in the last two matches.
England are driven by the pain of their 2013 ordeal in Cardiff. That record 30-3 drubbing is a scar that Chris Robshaw and Co are desperate to erase. In contrast, Welsh demons can be found in their last World Cup, when Sam Warburton’s controversial red card in the semi-final against France shattered their hopes.
They have coaches and players who are familiar with this territory whereas for most of those in the England camp, it is a leap into the unknown.
Robshaw will tonight pass Martin Johnson’s tally of caps as England captain and Lancaster needs him to emulate the iconic lock.
Against Fiji, the home side lost shape, and it took too long to regain the initiative. This time, there will be much less room for manoeuvre. Leadership is required.
So much focus will be on the midfield contest. Roberts is hell-bent on putting the newcomer Burgess in his place.
The Lion will expect to give the rugby union novice an education. Both sides will hurl themselves into collisions on the gain line, in the hope of generating precious momentum in order to launch their wide runners.
Yet, as ever, the backs can only operate off the base provided by their pack. Wales have the greater pedigree. Warburton is a Lion who can be king of the jungle at the breakdown, working in tandem with the destructive Dan Lydiate.
England will rely on a collective ruck onslaught, in keeping with their view that the specialist openside is an out-dated concept.
Wales’s rookie tighthead, Exeter’s Tomas Francis, will believe he can unsettle Joe Marler in the scrum, while the line-out will provide an intriguing duel between familiar foes; Geoff Parling and Alun Wyn Jones. Once again, the throwing of Tom Youngs will come under intense scrutiny and the battle of the cousins at No 8, Billy Vunipola and Taulupe Faletau, will provide a fascinating sub-plot.
Rival fly-halves Owen Farrell and Dan Biggar can both play a canny territorial game before unleashing Burgess and Roberts.
Wales will be confident that Scott Williams at No 13 is more capable of launching their outside runners than his opposite number, the defence-minded Brad Barritt.
But England have demonstrated greater back-three cutting edge of late.