Euro exit vote ‘could tip balance for Scots’

THE UK’s exit from the EU could ‘tip the balance’ towards majority support for Scottish independence, according to a new opinion poll.

The Panelbase survey reveals that 47 per cent of Scots want to break up Britain, only two points above the 2014 referendum, but that figure creeps up to 52 per cent in the scenario of an ‘out’ vote on EU membership.

Nicola Sturgeon has claimed that if Scotland is dragged out of the EU against its will, it could be the trigger for a second referendum on independence.

Some SNP strategists are thought to back that game plan in the hope of securing a Yes vote for separation, although others have warned that the currency dilemma would need to be resolved first.

An independent Scotland could not feasibly seek to become a full member of the EU and keep the British pound, with the UK outwith the EU.

Polls now consistently show that Scots are opposed to ‘Brexit’, with Panelbase putting support for the ‘remain’ camp on 65 per cent.

A poll by Survation for The Mail on Sunday put UK-wide support for ‘leave’

‘Narrow margin

in favour’

at 53 per cent – its highest figure since the General Election.

Scotland’s leading elections expert, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, said: ‘If Britain were to leave the EU it could tip the balance on independence from a narrow margin against to a narrow margin in favour.’

The poll does not show a huge surge for independence in this scenario and SNP strategists are likely to want to be at around 60 per cent before they can be confident of victory.

Panelbase managing director Ivor Knox said: ‘It seems that the tipping point leading to – or preventing – independence may not be related to shortterm party politics but to the other major constitutional issue of the day, Britain’s relationship with Europe.’

Last week Miss Sturgeon said: ‘I’ll be campaigning for Scotland and indeed for the UK, to stay in the EU but I think the decision that is taken should follow a proper public debate.

‘By focusing on the narrow issues of the renegotiation, the UK Government is in danger of selling the pass on the big economic and social arguments for staying in, and leaving too little time for these big issues.

‘I hope that the Prime Minister stops giving ground to the Leave campaign and starts to make the positive case as well. To do otherwise, I think, would be a failure of leadership.’