‘Stitch-up’ fears as backing for EU membership falls
SUPPORT for Britain’s membership of the EU is starting to fall in Scotland amid growing criticism of David Cameron’s ‘stitchup’ with Brussels.
A new opinion poll found the In camp has slipped by five percentage points since last May to 44 per cent, but still remains on course for victory north of the Border.
Out has increased from 19 per cent to 21 per cent, according to the face-toface TNS study, with around one-third of voters still to make up their minds.
UK-wide polls have varied greatly this year, with a ComRes telephone survey putting the In camp 18 points ahead, while a YouGov online study put Out in the lead by four points.
The TNS poll of more than 1,000 Scots also confirmed that Nicola Sturgeon is still heading for a landslide election victory in May, while the Tories have dramatically closed the gap on Labour in the race for second place. Interviews were conducted throughout January, before Labour announced controversial plans to hike income tax by 1p.
A referendum on EU membership is now expected to be held in June, weeks after May’s Holyrood election. Mr Cameron is facing a backlash from his own MPs over his deal to curb immigration, which has been blasted as ‘thin gruel’.
Last night, Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said there is ‘all to play for’ north of the Border, adding: ‘With the referendum on membership of the EU looking increasingly likely to take place in 2016, people may be starting to focus on Britain’s membership of the European Union, despite concerns expressed by the First Minister about holding the referendum in June, so soon after elections to the devolved assemblies.
‘With such a high level of “don’t knows” it’s still all to play for and there remains a positive view of the European Union in Scotland.’
SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins said: ‘There appears to be very little substance to the Prime Minister’s renegotiation deal and I think the exercise has been a missed opportunity for real reform. However, now we have a clear task and that is to present the positive case for continued membership of the EU.
‘It is important that everyone has the chance to fully scrutinise the case for and against membership of the EU before a referendum is held and holding a vote in June would be totally disrespectful to the Scottish parliament election in May.’
Ukip’s Scottish leader, MEP David Coburn, said: ‘The [anti-EU] arguments are coming home to people. The media – STV and the BBC – pump out constant stuff against the ‘getting out’ movement and Ukip in particular, but the message is sinking home.
‘They’re watching what is happening with the migrants arriving. I feel very sorry for lots of these people, I don’t blame them… but we can’t have them all. It’s just not possible.
‘Although we have space in Scotland, a lot of people don’t have high wages and they don’t need more competition. They’re worried about homes and council houses – there’s not enough, we should be building more – and they feel if there are a lot of people arriving they won’t get their fair share.’
The latest poll found a significant lead for the SNP among those certain to vote in the Scottish election. For the constituency ballot, the Nationalists are on 57 per cent, with Labour on 21 per cent, the Tories on 17 per cent and the Lib Dems on 3 per cent. In regional vote share, the SNP is on 52 per cent, with Labour on 19 per cent, the Tories on 17 per cent, and the Lib Dems and Greens tied on 6 per cent.
A Scottish Tory spokesman said: ‘This is an encouraging poll which show more and more Scots are listening to Ruth Davidson’s message. We will campaign for every vote ahead of May – backing Scotland’s place in the UK, opposing Labour and Lib Dem tax rises and holding the SNP to account.’
A Scottish Labour spokesman said: ‘We are getting back to our radical roots which has done so much to change Scotland. In May, Scotland has a choice: the SNP are proposing hundreds of millions of pounds of cuts to schools and local services. Given the choice between using the powers of the Scottish parliament or cuts to schools, Scottish Labour will use the powers.
SNP business convener Derek Mackay said: ‘This is another very welcome poll showing people are continuing to put their trust in the SNP’s positive and progressive vision for Scotland’s future – and are rejecting an increasingly incompetent Labour Party which isn’t even regarded as a credible party of opposition, let alone a credible party of government – and which now appears to be locked in a fight with the Tories for second place.’
Leave.EU Scottish spokesman Jack Montgomery said: ‘As the debate gets under way in Scotland, people are starting to be won over by the arguments. New Labour politicians like Tony Blair and Remain director Will Straw, who are taking the Scottish vote for granted, need to remember it was the complacency they’re showing now which all but wiped their party out in the general election.’
‘It’s still all to play for’
THE SNP maintains that the Scots and the English are so far apart on key issues that we would be better off cutting the ties of the Union and going our separate ways.
They point to attitudes to Europe as the prime example of the North/South gulf, arguing Scots are good Europeans while ‘Little Englanders’ are not.
As ever, the separatists oversimplify to suit their own ends, threatening that an Out vote by England and an In vote here would trigger the second independence referendum they long for.
Certainly, the latest TNS poll on Europe confirms what other surveys have found – a majority of Scots do want to remain in the EU.
But, just as south of the Border, there are sufficient doubters to give the Out campaign hope and to ensure the In/Out referendum – which may come as soon as June – will be hard-fought.
English polls are less convinced of an Out vote than is the SNP. So much, then, for the separatists’ certainty about how the vote will play out.
Another inconvenient truth for Nicola Sturgeon’s party is that some of the most vehement Out voters are SNP members.
So where are the fault lines over Europe? Most agree that the great economic community we signed up for in 1973 has been a boon for business.
Today, trading with Europe – despite the sterling/euro differences – is simple and efficient.
Travel is the same and, as we draw closer economically, so the awful prospect of war in Europe recedes.
But the trading bloc has grown beyond recognition and now we have faceless politicians and judges in Brussels and Strasbourg calling the tune to which our politicians and courts must dance.
This is a major headache for the SNP, for its position is rendered ridiculous when it argues that we must throw off the ‘shackles of Westminster’ only to enter the EU’s cage.
The SNP itself has been on the receiving end of European high-handedness. Its bid to tackle alcohol problems here was based on minimum pricing. That was rejected out of hand by Europe’s unelected judges, at no small cost to Scottish taxpayers. Whether Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempts to renegotiate Britain’s compact with the EU will deliver much of substance is yet to be seen. His shuttle diplomacy may be a pantomime or it may be a genuine attempt to rebalance our relationship with Europe. Only time will tell.
Meanwhile, all polls are only a snapshot, not predictions – and we know that the political l andscape can alter in a heartbeat.
About the only thing we can agree on over Europe is that Angus Robertson’s claims that Scots will somehow struggle to deal with an EU referendum within weeks of the Holyrood election in May is as risible as it i s patronising and pompous.
When it comes to the final reckoning on Europe, it may yet be that the Mr Cameron is grateful to the Scots for the In votes that the SNP is currently struggling so hard to deliver.