2016 Six Nations
Unrivalled coverage of this year’s tournament It’s time to make a winning start
The first day of the Six Nations... expectations are high, confidence levels are off the scale and we convince each other that our team is going to have a great Championship.
That has certainly been true in Scotland, only for a defeat to follow in the first game in all but one of the 16 Six Nations there have been since the turn of the century when Italy joined the party.
It is a remarkable statistic but it highlights the problems that Scotland have faced over the years.
The Six Nations is all about momentum; win the first game and it leads you nicely into the next week with confidence levels increased. Lose and the opposite is true; confidence can be destroyed, selection can be questioned, excuses are made and suddenly the next game becomes a must-win or you are staring at another Wooden Spoon play-off with Italy.
I have looked on with envy at the other teams who have enjoyed that first scenario and built on that opening win — while all our hopes and expectations have been almost extinguished before the Championship has really got going.
Will it be different today? The confidence is higher, as are expectation levels — not due to blind optimism this time but sound reasoning about the quality of the Scotland team and their recent history.
It is always dangerous to look too far back to see how a team will perform but the last game normally offers a fairly accurate reflection. In their last outing, Scotland came within a whisker of beating the second-best team in the world and making the semi-finals of the World Cup, so we should expect the team to hit those heights of performance again today.
They showed real guts that day to keep in touch with Australia and attacked from all areas. That is what they need to do against england.
One area of performance from the World Cup that they will have to improve on, however, is the defence.
In amongst the hype surrounding the circumstances of the defeat and the penalty in the last two minutes, it has almost been forgotten that Scotland conceded five tries that day.
In the previous game, they allowed Samoa to score f our tries and 33 points. The game before that, South Africa managed 34 points with three tries being scored. Twelve tries in three games is pretty high.
You very rarely — and the Samoa game was the exception — win games when you concede that many points and tries. Do the same today and it will still only be one victory from the opening weekend fixtures.
Scotland must be solid in defence today because this england team can get on a roll if they gain any momentum. Give them a few easy scores, or even just a couple of linebreaks, and their confidence will grow and they could be very dangerous.
It has almost gone f ull circle because for many years we had no attack and a solid defence. Now we have a very effective attacking game that can break the defensive line almost at will but a defence that has become worryingly porous.
I imagine this will have been an area that the Scotland team have focused on a lot in training and we need to see the fruits of their labours this afternoon.
The r eason t hat Scotland’s attacking game is so potent now is, largely, due to having Mark Bennett at outside centre. he provides the pace and power — despite his relatively small stature — required and has improved greatly over the past 18 months.
It was touch-and-go if he was going to be fit with his recent shoulder i njury, but it i s great news f or Scotland that he is in the team.
Away from Scotland, we are left to wonder which england is going to turn up today? The one that played exceptional rugby on the final day in last year’s tournament or the one that was meekly knocked out of their own World Cup at the group stage.
The new coach eddie Jones has picked a team with attitude and bite; they are big and physical up front and they have two stand-offs playing in midfield. They are not going to play pretty rugby to start with. It is going to be brutal, physical and direct, but if they get a sniff, they have players out wide that love to attack.
hence why Scotland’s defence has got to be solid and not give them any way to build their performance.
My real hope for Scotland is that the much talked-about World Cup performance is not the pinnacle of this team but only the stepping stone to greater things.
They have the ability, they have the experience and they should have the belief. They now need the victory today.
One area in which Scotland must improve is in defence