50,000 ‘don’t-knows’ who could condemn Labour to third place
Tories predict last-minute swing will see them edge ahead
JUST 50,000 undecided voters could consign Labour to its worst defeat since devolution in next week’s election, according to senior Tory insiders.
With less than a week to go until polling stations open, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson is to launch an unprecedented last-minute push to persuade this vital group of voters to install her as Holyrood’s opposition leader.
Nicola Sturgeon is all but guaranteed a convincing victory in the early hours of Friday morning but the fight for second place between Labour and the Tories is set to go to the wire.
Yesterday, a new poll offered some respite for Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, putting her party five points ahead of the Conservatives in the constituency vote.
However, analysis of all recent surveys suggests the race is too close to call.
The Scottish Daily Mail has learned Tory strategists believe that 150,000 pro-Union Scots who voted Labour or Lib Dem in last year’s General Election – many for tactical reasons in an unsuccessful bid to stop the SNP – are now set to vote Tory.
Insiders claim that only another 50,000 votes would be enough to push Miss Davidson ahead of Miss Dugdale, in a final humiliation to once-dominant Labour.
But the Mail understands that Labour’s internal figures suggest the party remains significantly ahead of the Tories.
A senior source said the party is ‘very, very, very confident’ of finishing in second place.
Yesterday’s poll from TNS found that support for the SNP has fallen slightly but Miss Sturgeon’s party remains in a dominant position ahead of Thursday’s contest.
It put support for the Nationalists in the constituency vote at 52 per cent – down four percentage points since last month, and down eight points from a peak of 60 per cent recorded two months ago.
Labour was up three points to 22 per cent, with the Tories up two points to 17 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats up one point to 7 per cent.
Support for the SNP also dipped slightly on the regional vote – down two points to 45 per cent. Meanwhile, Labour was up one point to 22 per cent, the Tories up three points to 18 per cent, the Lib Dems down a point to 5 per cent and the Greens unchanged at 8 per cent.
The face-to-face poll of 1,035 people was conducted between April 1 and 24, while an Ipsos MORI telephone poll published on Wednesday, that suggested a closer fight for second place, took place between April 18 and 25.
Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said: ‘The polls suggest the Labour Party is still struggling to match the share of the vote they achieved in 2011 let alone begin a recovery.
‘The Conservative Party do not yet appear to be in a position which will see them replacing Labour as the official opposition.’
But a senior Scottish Conservative source said: ‘There are thousands of people across Scotland telling us they are thinking of voting for Ruth for the first time.
‘They are not dyed-in-the-wool Tories and many won’t ever have considered voting for us before, but they just want someone – anyone – to hold the SNP to account, and they see Ruth as the best person to do that.
‘The evidence suggests that, already, as many as 150,000 people who voted for Labour and the Lib Dems last year are planning to switch and back Ruth to do that job. That’s not because they’re committed Conservative voters, it’s because they see Ruth as better than Kezia Dugdale at leading a strong opposition and they’re backing her to do that job.’
The source added: ‘We are now focused in this campaign on speaking to more people with that message. If another 50,000 people back it, they can ensure Ruth becomes the main opposition party leader in Scotland. It’s really up to them now.’
But a Labour source said: ‘People all across Scotland, both Yes and No voters, are sick and tired of Ruth Davidson’s blatant attempt to re-run the referendum arguments of the past.
‘Scotland made the right decision to stay in the UK and now it’s time for everybody to move on. That’s why we have focused relentlessly on what we will do with the new [Holyrood] powers – tax the richest 1 per cent, invest in education and stop the cuts to the NHS and other public services.
‘Ruth Davidson has tried to run away from the fact that she is a Tory, but on the doorsteps people recognise that she has the same beliefs as David Cameron and George Osborne. That’s damaging for her.’
Campaigning in South Queensferry with Deputy First Minister John Swinney and deputy SNP leader Stewart Hosie yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon said: ‘The SNP in government has made real progress on so many issues, but we are determined to go even further and over the next week we will be working harder than ever to drive home our positive message to people in Scotland.’
‘Labour Party is still struggling’